— ‘Data Point Market’ defined — Who wins, who loses? — The best way to play The ‘Data Point Market’ defined The key data point last week was the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Thursday February 29. This is supposedly a key inflation indicator for the Fed in its fight against inflation. A number at or…
Tag: CNBC
A Cautionary Tale From The Y2K Tech Bubble And How to Profit From It–History Worth Noting!
— No question we have a bubble here, but it is not the entire market–W/O the ‘Mag 7’ S&P forward multiple is around 15.5. — The 20.4 forward multiple on the entire index appears to be all that many investors and market analysts see. This type of tunnel vision caused many to miss a great move in the broader…
No Rate Cut … No Big Deal!
— Focus on Fed policy and lower rates misses the point … in our strong economy we may not need to do this. — Those calling for more economic support from lower rates never mention continued expansionary fiscal policy (continued deficit spending) as an offset. — Keynes had it right: you stimulate when you have…
The huge 2-month jump in confidence–Why now?
— University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey jumped 29% in the November/December time period … the biggest 2-month increase since 1991. — The average survey respondent is finally becoming aware of trends that have been in place since early 2022. — Why has this epiphany taken so long to prevail and where do we go from here? Good News Turns Out To Be Good…
Be Wary of Not Letting ‘Good News” Be ‘Good News’
— Market’s tepid reaction to Friday’s good employment data frames the bearish narrative. — Beware! Fed rate cuts may not be as imminent as recent strong market action may be signaling. — I ask the question, is it about time we let good news be good news without Fed intervention? Bah! Humbug! Bad News ……
The Newest Bogus Narrative: “The Bulls Are Back. They May Not Like the Reasons Why the Fed Is Easing”.
— Is the Fed’s signaling the end of rate hikes and potential cuts this year a good thing or a bad thing? — Does the sub-4% yield on the 10-year US Treasury note presage bad times? — Have the bear’s changed their tone? You Just Can’t Please Some Folks After fearing a Fed-driven recession for the…
Is the market’s recent strength all about expected rate cuts or is something else at play?
— There is a constant drumbeat about continuing market strength and expected Fed action to cut rates. — This is a typically simplistic media/pundit explanation of a complex and misunderstood market. — What happens if the Fed doesn’t budge? The bull will continue. The Drumbeat This headline from Bloomberg gives a good summation: “After So Many False Dawns, the market is convinced…
Powell speaks … the market cringes … then moves on. You should too.
— What was the market expecting him to say? — Is “Mission Accomplished” the right message at this time? — Is 2% the right target? “Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down”(CNBC) What was the market expecting? Please don’t say: ‘all clear’, ‘everything’s great’,’ inflation is but a dark remnant of our distant…
Why energy demand should be the last thing you worry about when investing in oil stocks
— Demand concerns no longer make sense as a negative in the energy investment process — The game has changed — In the new world of hydrocarbons it’s all about capital discipline and supply management. — The Exxon (XON) / Pioneer (PXD) deal and Chevron (CHV) / Hess (HES) deals are emblematic of this shift. Demand Concerns According to…
Flight-to-safety assets: Are they really safe?
— Gold got a new lease on life in October, up over 12% month-to-date on interest rate driven recession fears and the recent armed action between Israel and Hamas. — Bitcoin has soared since September, up 28%, in part on flight-to-safety buying and in part due to recent speculation about the SEC allowing the sale…