— No question … The market is overextended — Well known investor sentiment surveys are flashing red — Calls for caution become routine — How should you react? — Best advice … maintain the long view … the secular bull continues The market is over extended There is no question about this. During the month…
Tag: congress
A significant change in message occurred Friday the 13th.
The word from Washington has changed from the coronavirus is ‘no big deal.’ We can get through this biological tap on the brakes of the economy with monetary ease (50 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate), a suggested cut in payroll taxes and, last Wednesday, a 30-day ban on flights from continental Europe….
A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
Irrational Pessimism Before moving on to a more complete discussion of ‘the belly of the bear’, I thought a real-time view of ‘irrational pessimism’ might be in order. I have one and it is a doozy. Now a ‘doozy’, loosely defined, is “something unique.” Unfortunately, or fortunately for those left with money to buy, there…
What could really tank this market?
Although the popular reasons continue to be The Fed raising rates (causing us to dip into recession), inflation (putting more pressure on the Fed to ratchet up rates) and trade wars (today’s favorite flavor based on a White House proposal — trial balloon or misstatement on the part of Secretary Mnuchin — to restrict Chinese…
Session 65–Kick The Can, Maybe Not.
“This Market is a Mystery” I have been trying to figure out why the market in the face of enormous stupidity and dysfunction, remains so strong. Also, today in the face of what could be a temporary reprieve (now a fait accompli), opening the government and increasing the debt ceiling, why didn’t we see people…
Session 61–Obsessing on Washington: Real Breakthroughs You May Have Missed!
If you have been putting yourself binge-viewing cable business channels to keep abreast of the latest on the Continuing Resolution/ debt ceiling saga (i.e. The Congressional Clown Show), you may have missed two very important geopolitical developments: a major thaw in U.S.- Iranian relations and a UN Security Council vote favoring a U.S. backed resolution…
Session 59– What the #%&*, No Taper!!!
One thing you learn, or should learn after being around the market as long as I have, is that “the crowd” is generally always wrong. I was with “the crowd” today. I expected the Fed to begin tapering of its Quantitative Easing Program. Boy was I (and ‘the crowd’) wrong. On the short-term, the market…
Session 46–What Really Worries Me? Part I.
Well, it is not the economy, the “Dreaded Taper” or the market. The ten-year treasury closed Friday at a 2.71 % yield (up over 1% from where it was a month ago). It seems like the market has not only discounted tapering, which has not yet begun, but also some tightening on the part of…