— Is the S&P 500 PE expensive? Maybe in a perspective-free environment the answer is ‘yes’. But I am not perspective-free. — In today’s media environment there are legions of market analysts who would say it is overvalued vs. historical the lows in the late ’70s and early ’80s where high rates and inflation pushed…
Tag: economy
If bull markets are “born on pessimism,” where are we now?
— Investor sentiment evidence would argue these most recent contractions are for real! — Why investor perceptions differ greatly from reality — lack of perspective and media more interested in getting their attention than an unemotional presentation fo the facts. — Most of the market away from the large cap/tech heavy S&P 500 looks very attractive. — “Bull…
Friday, another day in the clueless market: What were you expecting Powell to say?
— It was a bit surprising to see the market rally into the Fed confab in Jackson Hole — Powell’s speech contained nothing that had not been said before and the “pain” that he is referring to is already being felt in certain inflated sectors. — Is a two percent long-rage inflation goal realistic /…
Trying to figure out this market?
–If this market has you confused or fearful, join the club –A look backward may help — The battle of the Covid19 ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ plays out. — leaping to the right conclusions is essential … my post tries to clear the fog. This might help The following is a reprint of a post…
The New Narrative: Buy Stocks of Profitable Companies?
— To expand the theme, “Buy stocks of profitable companies that make ‘things’ and return profit to shareholders.” (Jim Cramer) — In the face of speculation about a 50 basis point move on rates at the May FOMC meeting (followed by another 75 bips in June) the market is telling us we should not buy…
Bubbles and Bear Markets: One size does not fit all!
— The Tech and Innovation bubble has burst — Investors heavily involved in this space are definitely in a bear market (a narrow bear market). — Cathie Wood for the defense — Words of wisdom from Morgan Stanley …Caveat Emptor — Parting thoughts The tech and innovation bubble has burst There is no question about it. A proxy…
“Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.”
— What’s wrong with this headline? I believe a lot. — A quintessential example of the media turning a silk purse into a sow’s ear — Most of America should be celebrating the economy. If they are not it is because the media is telling them things are bad. What is wrong with my title headline? Barron’s columnist, Randall…
“The bond market agrees with the Federal Reserve — inflation is temporary” Huh!
— “Inflation has peaked.” — “The rate of growth has peaked at home and abroad, as well.” — “Investors of all stripes, foreign and domestic, are offsetting their exposure to equities by purchasing high quality Treasuries to provide ballast in their portfolios.” — “The spread of the Covid delta variant may slow global growth if…
Taper Myths–Don’t let Them cost you money!
–The Fed can’t taper Quantitative Easing without really hurting the market. –Tapering of QE will signal a shift by the Fed to tighter monetary policy –Tapering will signal the end an era of Fed ease and the onset of higher inflation and interest rates, the market’s eventual downfall. –The “Worst” case and what happened to stocks,…
The real “Doctor Doom” is back and he’s gloomy
Who is the real “Doctor Doom?” Why, it is none other than Henry Kaufman, former chief economist at Salomon Brothers, after a long repose out of the limelight. Not only is he back, but he is loaded for bear … he ” … Sees Danger in the Markets and Economy.” (you need WSJ or Barron’s…