— No question … The market is overextended — Well known investor sentiment surveys are flashing red — Calls for caution become routine — How should you react? — Best advice … maintain the long view … the secular bull continues The market is over extended There is no question about this. During the month…
Tag: economy
“Buy, Sell or Fold” — A market history and MLP retrospective
A Glance in the Rear View Mirror In March of 2013, I penned my 14th edition of kortsessions.com, “Buy, sell or Fold?”. We had just broken definitely above the previous record high ( March 2000, s&P 500, 1550). The actual record high did occur in October 2007 (1576) but it was a very short-lived move…
A Lethal Combo: PMI at a 10-year low + Slowing Job Growth — NOT!
Flash! Dow looses 800 points in 2 Days Here we go again, more selling based on market news items reported without contextual backup. Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for September Worst in a Decade 50.2% was the expected reading. 47.8% was the actual number. Any reading below 50 is considered to be indicative of a slowing…
Impeachment: Precursor and Aftermath
Introduction In this discussion the potential market impact of the run-up to an impeachment proceeding and the impact of an impeachment trial and removal from office of president Trump, I will do my best to keep it apolitical and factual. I will be speculating about possible outcomes and their impact on the market and the economy. I…
Breaking Radio Silence …
Actually, I’m breaking internet silence. “Radio” just sounds much more dramatic … like risking blowing a top secret mission. What I try to do with kortsessions is to blow someone else’s secret missions … to give facts and perspective. That “someone else” is the media, and their covert mission, as it pertains to market news,…
“Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning“
You have to be kidding me! This headline from CNBC greeted me this morning and appears to give us a significant reason for the Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ indices suffering a sharp decline today. It is just one more instance of media hype on two non-sure-things … a recession is imminent and that a…
“Ladies and gentlemen we have a ‘Black Swan'” — Revisited
Election 2016 a major negative surprise for investors? Initially, I thought it would be. Early the morning of the day after I posted, Ladies and gentlemen we have a Black Swan (11/9/2016). I mean based on the polling, which turned out to be dead wrong, there looked to be little chance that we’d ever see…
“The president is the Yankees and Powell is the Toledo Mud Hens.”
Thus spake Jim Cramer … Wednesday morning June 19. Previously in the “Squawk on the Street” segment he opined, “Powell is living in a conventional world,” not the World of Trump. Powell’s conventional world is a place where you try to get the near-impossible (monetary policy) right. It is a world that involves meticulously working…
Pre-emptive Fed Strikes + Having It Both Ways
Dumb and Dumber Just when you thought media/pundit commentary on the market and the economy couldn’t get anymore inane and stupid, they surprise you by plumbing a new depth. This article from CNBC, “These charts show how Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the most important thing to the market now,” is a solid gold example. Of…
Flight to Safety: “All that glitters is not gold!” — William Shakespeare
A Retraction Before getting into the meat of this post covering the last ten years of ‘Flights to Safety’ and gold as a flight-to-safety asset, I need to take back all the nice things I said about Barron’s last week because they went back to the dark side this week (“The Dow Celebrates Five Weeks…