First and Foremost … By early October, 2018, the S&P 500 had more than quadrupled off its 666, 2009 secular bear market low (up over 300%). This was capped off by a spectacular 24 month run that saw the S&P 500 increase more than 50% to a new all-time-high of 2951.81 (10/3/18). I would say a correction of…
Tag: economy
A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
Irrational Pessimism Before moving on to a more complete discussion of ‘the belly of the bear’, I thought a real-time view of ‘irrational pessimism’ might be in order. I have one and it is a doozy. Now a ‘doozy’, loosely defined, is “something unique.” Unfortunately, or fortunately for those left with money to buy, there…
Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan–Version 2.0
Late the evening of November 8, 2016 I wrote a post “Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan.” The Black Swan (unexpected, very rare) was the surprise election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. This was before the final tally of the vote was in. You may read the entire post…
Jeffrey Gundlach — S&P 500 headed to new lows
CNBC felt Gundlach’s commentary to be so valuable, so prescient that they ran this banner headline, “Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 is headed to new lows: ‘I’m pretty sure this is a bear market’”, two days in a row. BTW we are already very close to the S&P’s low of the year. A break to…
A ‘Bad Trip’ Down Memory Lane
The ‘bad trip’ I’m alluding to in my title was the type some substance experimenters used to get from self-administered hallucinogenic drugs like LSD (Lysergic Acid Diethylamide). This was the preferred trip-inducing substance of Harvard psychology professor Dr. Timothy Leary who thought it might have great potential in psychotherapy. “He used LSD himself and developed…
The beginning of the end
Or, is it the end of the beginning? Or, is it, as stated in the eloquent and somewhat humorous words of Sir Winston Churchill, ” … not the end. This is not even the beginning the end. But is perhaps the end of the beginning.” This line was delivered to the attendees at the Lord…
“These are the times that try men’s souls”
Thank you Thomas Paine and CNBC contributors Fred Imbert and Ryan Browne for the title and inspiration for this post. Paine’s pamphlet “The American Crisis” penned during the Revolutionary War, did indeed reflect dire times in our history. Meanwhile, CNBC’s post-market post (Dow drops 200 points on worries about global economic growth–11/9/18) reflected on potential dire times in…
Panic City & Cramer’s Revisionist Market History
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning” … Robert Duval as gung-ho, Lt. Colonel Kilgore in Francis Ford Coppola’s classic Vietnam film, “Apocalypse Now.“ In Kilgore’s case it was the “smell of victory” … not so for the market. Since Monday (10/8) it was napalm morning, noon and night for US equities, burning…
Worried About Stocks?: A Little History That Might Help You Sleep Better
We have seen this movie before … And many times. The United States Treasury 10-year note breaching a 3% yield (peaking last week at 3.248%) after another quarter point bump in the Fed funds rate (to 2.25%) has rattled the market again. “Again” is the operative word. This happens every time that the Fed moves…
“The Fed Could Be Hiking Us into a Recession, … “
“The Fed could be hiking us into a recession, investor Peter Boockvar warns.” This headline appeared Saturday (9/29) on CNBC’s web site. Are You Scared Yet? You probably shouldn’t be. First of all, if you look at the interview, it is hardly a full-blown warning of imminent disaster from Boockvar, though the CNBC header would like…