There is a very strong consensus on Wall Street and in the media that our long run of super-low interest rates is the singular result of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke and Quantitative Easing. As an example, Barron’s takes the Fed and Ben Bernanke to task again this week in a piece called “Ben’s Ultimate…
Tag: Federal Reserve
Session 52–A Twofer “The Dreaded Taper” Part II and The Media Gets It Right Again!
If there is one thing that seems certain, Fed tapering of QE is coming and it is now media obsession number one. This will continue until it becomes fact (a fact that the market probably has already priced in). The Fed could probably end quantitative easing “cold turkey” without a whimper from the market, provided…
Session 51–Stunning Revelations From Mutual Fund Land!
Since the market began its precipitous decline in 2008 and until January of this year, $418 billion came out of equity mutual funds. According to Lipper Analytics, January of 2013 broke this streak of net redemptions with a $14 billion net inflow. At the same time Lipper reported net new bond fund purchases were $34…
Session 50–The Beginning of The End Or The End of The Beginning?
My title today pays homage to one of the most esteemed and controversial figures of the twentieth century, Sir Winston Churchill, and a speech he gave celebrating the October 1942, British victory over Erwin Rommel’s Afrika Korps at El Alamein. In putting the event into perspective Churchill said, “This battle was not the end. It…
Session 47–Bernanke Speaks!
Maybe our title should be, “Bernanke, et. al. Speak, Repeatedly”. For the most part, the message is the same: the tapering of QE will be data-derived and dependent on economic fundamentals in the United States, unemployment stats in particular. The Fed Chair addressed The National Bureau of Economic Research conference today. His topic was a…
Session 46–What Really Worries Me? Part I.
Well, it is not the economy, the “Dreaded Taper” or the market. The ten-year treasury closed Friday at a 2.71 % yield (up over 1% from where it was a month ago). It seems like the market has not only discounted tapering, which has not yet begun, but also some tightening on the part of…
Session 45–“Earnings Season”
Before venturing into one of my favorite topics, “Earnings Season”, I thought it might be useful to explain my reason for creating kortsessions.com. I started my blog to offer a sensible counterpoint to the 24/7 media/ political/ punditry cycle and its continuous barrage of bad news, misinformation and fear mongering. Most of this is noise, doing…
Session 44–Know When To Fold ‘Em!
Our title today emanates from that Kenny Roger’s classic, “The Gambler”…”You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em. Know when to walk away, know when to run.” It seems this is a lesson that has been lost on PIMCO founder, Bill Gross and his minions. Because Mr. Gross knew how…
Session 43–The Double Whammy! China Implodes and QE Is Finite #%#&@.
In the last four trading days the “Double Whammy”, China worries and the QE taper, have revitalized the media and market volatility. Bad news is good news for the folks at Barron’s and CNBC. The market has tanked (S & P now down almost 6% from the May all-time high), the result of the aftershock…
Session 42–Taper Mania, Taper Tip-Off…Whatever…
Taper Mania, Taper Tip-Off, whatever you chose to call it, the obsession with this issue continues to rattle the market. Last I saw, the 10-year treasury was trading around a 2.35% yield in after-hours trading (up from around a 2.18% yield earlier in the day). Volatility has come to the treasury market. And all Bernanke…