— A series of new all-time index highs but no popping of corks — A flight to safety goes on under the surface–a 1.25% yield on the 10-year Treasury July 7, couple with a ‘risk off’ 7% drop in the Russell 2K since July 1 — Are we headed for an economic slow-down or recession? This question…
Tag: interest rates
“The bond market agrees with the Federal Reserve — inflation is temporary” Huh!
— “Inflation has peaked.” — “The rate of growth has peaked at home and abroad, as well.” — “Investors of all stripes, foreign and domestic, are offsetting their exposure to equities by purchasing high quality Treasuries to provide ballast in their portfolios.” — “The spread of the Covid delta variant may slow global growth if…
The Stock Market: Dazed and Confused to The Max
— Two key historic characteristics of the stock market: It works to confuse and confound the maximum number of people most of the time while providing excellent long-term returns. — So-called “hawkish” commentary by the Fed is credited with sending stocks into a tailspin while, strangely enough, buyers showed up for the US Treasury 10-year which’…
Fed OMC day: Usually a good day be a stock buyer!
— Market history of the past 11 years confirms this assertion. — It is a gift given to us by the media … tales “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” –Today’s report was par for the course, causing a knee-jerk 382 point drop in the Dow followed by a barrage of inane, Powell parsing commentary….
Taper Myths–Don’t let Them cost you money!
–The Fed can’t taper Quantitative Easing without really hurting the market. –Tapering of QE will signal a shift by the Fed to tighter monetary policy –Tapering will signal the end an era of Fed ease and the onset of higher inflation and interest rates, the market’s eventual downfall. –The “Worst” case and what happened to stocks,…
When in doubt, return to the Covid-19 playbook!
The Covid Playbook It is simple … sell the old economy (cyclical), value and anything considered risky (small cap). buy large cap, dependable growth (tech), i.e. the bulletproof, the innovators. Valuation doesn’t matter you just need to be somewhere with immunity to the economic ravages of the renewed pandemic. We just saw this occur over the…
The real “Doctor Doom” is back and he’s gloomy
Who is the real “Doctor Doom?” Why, it is none other than Henry Kaufman, former chief economist at Salomon Brothers, after a long repose out of the limelight. Not only is he back, but he is loaded for bear … he ” … Sees Danger in the Markets and Economy.” (you need WSJ or Barron’s…
Are You Smarter Than A Computer?
The answer is … It depends on who is programing the computer … GIGO (Garbage in/ Garbage out) for Pete’s sake! This is important when considering the daily/weekly gyrations of the stock market.“In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.”…
Interest rates and stocks: Heads you lose … Tails you lose!
The Great Conundrum In January of 2020 the 10-year US Treasury opened the new year trading with a yield of 1.8%. The S&P 500 was on its way to a 4.6% gain and a new record high by February. Then Covid-19 hit and in the flight to safety that followed the 10-year yield went below one half…
The Death TINA (There Is No Alternative)
Wait a minute! The reports of TINA’s demise may be greatly exaggerated. If the acronym TINA is not part of your daily vocabulary, I can understand. The concept of “there is no alternative” is a term some market savants have used to explain the market’s strength over the past few years. There is no alternative to…