— A flight to safety … the yield on the 10-year treasury drops 15% in two weeks in a raging bull market. — For some investors (computerized or not) fears of higher interest rates and inflation trump a rip-roaring economy with a tankful of fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy as far as the eye can…
Tag: jerome Powell
Tuesday’s Market Bloodbath: Is Still “Much ado about nothing”
–Tuesday September 28, 2021 showed us a very predictable market reaction to No New News, save greater conviction that inflation may not be that transient and rates will be going up. –Market participants (including their computers) have been conditioned by the media to react in this way over decades and there is no nuance with the…
The Big Lie About The End of Quantitative Easing and Other Media Malpractice
–There is a falsehood constantly perpetuated by the media that the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) will be bad for the market and you should worry about it. –This is hard to imagine given that the emergency which brought us QE has passed, and QE’s ability to keep rates lower may be greatly exaggerated. –Why is it that Chairman…
Stock Market at The Crossroads–Buy, Sell or Hold?
We are at a crossroads. The stock market has done (as usual) what most people did not expect. The S&P 500 gained back most of what it lost on the Covid crash, closing last Friday (5/8/20) only off a little more than 13% from its February 20, all-time-high (3393.52). This is after the index had…
Nothing inspires confidence like an emergency Fed funds rate cut
— During the entire panic on the downside you had to ask ‘are things really that bad out there?’ — One also has to ask how does a cut of 50 basis points on the Fed funds rate positively impact the trajectory the COVID19 epidemic. — Fortunately, the answer may be ‘no’ to bullet number…
“The president is the Yankees and Powell is the Toledo Mud Hens.”
Thus spake Jim Cramer … Wednesday morning June 19. Previously in the “Squawk on the Street” segment he opined, “Powell is living in a conventional world,” not the World of Trump. Powell’s conventional world is a place where you try to get the near-impossible (monetary policy) right. It is a world that involves meticulously working…
File this one under, “You Have To Be Kidding Me!”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 162.77 points today. Because the financial media feels compelled to explain every jiggle in the market the folks at CNBC proclaimed the “Dow drops more than 150 points after Fed’s Powell dashes rate cut hopes.” They went on to say that on one word uttered by Chairman Powell when talking…
“The Eerie Calm in Global Markets” (Beware!)
The recent shift in Fed rhetoric … does it really mark a policy shift? Market history update Bad News Sells! Randall Forsyth, Barron’s editorial writer and chief contributor to the “Up and Down Wall Street” column, is a modern day “Mikey.” You all remember Mikey? He was a 3 or 4-year-old toddler featured…
The “Christmas Eve Massacre” and where we stand now
First and Foremost … By early October, 2018, the S&P 500 had more than quadrupled off its 666, 2009 secular bear market low (up over 300%). This was capped off by a spectacular 24 month run that saw the S&P 500 increase more than 50% to a new all-time-high of 2951.81 (10/3/18). I would say a correction of…
Another Fed Freak-Out
Or, should I say, mini freak-out? After all the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 indices were only down 299 and 35 points respectively (a mere 1.16% and 1.27%). This certainly was not a rout and it was very predictable. This is what you would expect from the market when a newly-minted Fed Chair, Jerome…