— My title emanates from a year-end editorial header in a well-regarded financial magazine. — When all else fails to convey the gravity of the moment, invoke in the astrologer. — Warren Buffett commentary on gravity and rates worth considering — Bifurcation in reverse “Second verse same as the first or Wax on Wax off”…
Tag: jerome Powell
If bull markets are “born on pessimism,” where are we now?
— Investor sentiment evidence would argue these most recent contractions are for real! — Why investor perceptions differ greatly from reality — lack of perspective and media more interested in getting their attention than an unemotional presentation fo the facts. — Most of the market away from the large cap/tech heavy S&P 500 looks very attractive. — “Bull…
Friday, another day in the clueless market: What were you expecting Powell to say?
— It was a bit surprising to see the market rally into the Fed confab in Jackson Hole — Powell’s speech contained nothing that had not been said before and the “pain” that he is referring to is already being felt in certain inflated sectors. — Is a two percent long-rage inflation goal realistic /…
Fed Obsession–A Gigantic Waste of Time!
— Fed Obsession, much of it is media-inspired with little in the way of real perspective … their conclusion is always negative. — Inflation is today’s monster issue. Since fiscal restraint has become a lost art it is up to the Fed to slay that dragon all by itself. — The trigger yesterday were comments by Fed Governor,…
Fed Speakers Weigh In: Good Policy or Grandstanding?
— Seems like everybody wants to get into the act … St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Fed Governor Waller call for stronger measures to fight inflation. — Though we value free speech, should the Fed speak with one voice when it comes to monetary policy? — Are opinions and forecasts based on the “dismal science” of…
Is that gorilla in the room an 800 pounder or 80 pounds?
— The gorilla, of course, is Fed policy and rising interest rates. — For certain segments of the market (Big Tech/The Innovators in particular) it rightly looms large. — For the rest of the market Wednesdays action was an exercise in ‘sawing sawdust’, reacting in a predictable way to old news. — The market sends a clear…
The Omicron Muddle: Opinion Versus Fact
— The market is being pummeled by a barrage of opinion on the Omicron variant of Covid 19. — There is a great divergence of opinion: the Moderna view vs. the Oxford view. — The facts that are available would seem to indicate that the market may be over-reacting on the downside. A barrage of divergent opinion on Covid…
UST 10-year rockets — a misguided attempt at beating the Fed to the punch
— A flight to safety … the yield on the 10-year treasury drops 15% in two weeks in a raging bull market. — For some investors (computerized or not) fears of higher interest rates and inflation trump a rip-roaring economy with a tankful of fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy as far as the eye can…
Tuesday’s Market Bloodbath: Is Still “Much ado about nothing”
–Tuesday September 28, 2021 showed us a very predictable market reaction to No New News, save greater conviction that inflation may not be that transient and rates will be going up. –Market participants (including their computers) have been conditioned by the media to react in this way over decades and there is no nuance with the…
The Big Lie About The End of Quantitative Easing and Other Media Malpractice
–There is a falsehood constantly perpetuated by the media that the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) will be bad for the market and you should worry about it. –This is hard to imagine given that the emergency which brought us QE has passed, and QE’s ability to keep rates lower may be greatly exaggerated. –Why is it that Chairman…