–Unthinkable events … the market sails right through –Balancing changing politics, insurrection and asset allocation –Potential flies in the ointment—Interest Rates, Taxes and Inflation –The VIX provides a clue on market sentiment and direction Protest, insurrection and the market What is depicted in my opening image is civil disobedience, rightful protest to redress grievances. What…
Tag: politics
A significant change in message occurred Friday the 13th.
The word from Washington has changed from the coronavirus is ‘no big deal.’ We can get through this biological tap on the brakes of the economy with monetary ease (50 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate), a suggested cut in payroll taxes and, last Wednesday, a 30-day ban on flights from continental Europe….
Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan–Version 2.0
Late the evening of November 8, 2016 I wrote a post “Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan.” The Black Swan (unexpected, very rare) was the surprise election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. This was before the final tally of the vote was in. You may read the entire post…
A prophecy from 1796
“Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally. This spirit, unfortunately, is inseparable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human mind. It exists under different shapes in all governments, more or…
Is the United States a “Stupid Country?”
People on both sides of the political spectrum, including our president, have made that assertion. Since I try not to do politics in kortsessions.com I will refrain from comment, other than to say what I see on the political front is very worrisome and that “stupid” (maybe even dangerous) could easily be used as a…
I Need New Glasses–That Black Swan Was White!
I also need to ignore the emotion of the political arena, not allowing it to color my thought process on investing. This was clearly a problem for many investors after the election of President Obama in 2008. The fear that he would not have the experience, intellect or chops to deal with the financial crises…
Session 73–“Its déjà-vu all over again”
Thank you Laurence Peter Berra (a.k.a. Yogi) for this eternal verbal pearl…what a way with words! I cite Yogi’s pearl to point out suggestions on the part of a few brave market strategy types that the 2013 market is deja-vu 1982, the last time stocks lifted off for a secular bull run. This is a…
Session 46–What Really Worries Me? Part I.
Well, it is not the economy, the “Dreaded Taper” or the market. The ten-year treasury closed Friday at a 2.71 % yield (up over 1% from where it was a month ago). It seems like the market has not only discounted tapering, which has not yet begun, but also some tightening on the part of…