By the word “we” I mean equity investors. And, if we are on the iceberg, it may just be the tip of this bull market’s magnitude that we are seeing above the water line. To continue the analogy, those left on the ill-fated Titanic are the bears, including such notables as Marc Faber, Harry Dent,…
2016–Parting Thoughts + Trump vs. Coolidge
As we approach the end of 2016, we’ve seen another year of record highs for the market and continued questions on the part of many as to why this is happening. With each passing day there continued to be warnings from the media and pundits that the market was on the verge of a…
Thinking about taking some chips off the table?
I recently had a conversation with a good friend who was contemplating liquidating his entire portfolio because of fear that the incoming Trump Administration would do something rash, or just plain stupid, that would torpedo the market. You might remember that was my initial gut reaction election night when I posted “Ladies and gentlemen we…
The Great Media Conspiracy
It is a conspiracy to keep you poor. This conspiracy is probably not intentional, but to keep the presses rolling, to keep you and me with eyes glued to the tube and internet, their product has to be gripping. Fear and sensationalism are the primary tools at their disposal. Ergo, there needs to be a…
CNBC–“Market indicator hits extreme last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008”
OMG! The “Cyclicly Adjusted” PE (CAPE) is over 27! This is really bad news. At least, that’s what the CNBC headline above would imply. Before you decide it might be a good idea to look into just what exactly CAPE is. CAPE, simply put, a … Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings…
Stunned and Confused
What stuns and confuses me is the new (or continuing) mantra on Wall Street that higher oil prices are good for stocks and the economy. No matter how hard I try to rationalize this thought process, I cannot make it work … except in one case. That is in the case that fear of a…
Wall Street, We have a problem!
Pardon me astronaut John L. Swigert, Jr., for my modification of your alert to Houston on Apollo XIII’s tricky return to Mother Earth in April of 1970. That was an incredibly dangerous time for this epic space mission, which, fortunately, ended safely. Of course, according to the financial media, there’s always a life-threatening market problem brewing…
I Need New Glasses–That Black Swan Was White!
I also need to ignore the emotion of the political arena, not allowing it to color my thought process on investing. This was clearly a problem for many investors after the election of President Obama in 2008. The fear that he would not have the experience, intellect or chops to deal with the financial crises…
Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan
Or, at least as of 11:30 PM CST November 8, 2016, the unimaginable (at least to me) may be about to occur — a Donald Trump Presidency. Dow futures are down 777 points (4.16%). Both S&P and Nasdaq futures have hit their down-5% collars and stopped trading (subsequently they have resumed trading). If the current…
Our ‘Long Day’s Journey Into Night’ is near an end
I believe this election cycle to be a nightmare and the end result of the extreme partisanship the has taken over the political landscape in the United States. The “Father of our Country” and first President George Washington had some very prescient things to say about political parties and partisanship in his farewell address 1796. I…