— Existential crisis averted (a tentative debt limit agreement) … a new (old) crop of negatives emerge. — Congress may balk as deadline approaches … or what about the employment numbers this week, inflation, the next Fed meeting or, horrors, a recession? — A return to the Covid playbook (without the Covid) — sell Economic sensitivity, buy growth. — The…
Market shrugs off doom while investors show preference for gold over stocks — what gives?
— We’ve seen this movie before … gold did ok, but what about stocks? — The last time we saw this preference for gold was 10 years ago. Why? — Waiting for the last shoe to drop is not a recipe for market success. — Markets are forward looking … This is an essential concept! We’ve seen this movie…
Debt Ceiling: The Great Distraction
— The debt ceiling, a tempest in a teapot, will be addressed. — The media frenzy surrounding the DC distracts from important progress on other issues. — Accentuating the positives! The Tempest In a Teapot What I’m about to discuss should not be construed as an endorsement of our current national debt position (about $31…
Flights to Safety: Treasuries, Gold, Nasdaq (?) and Bitcoin (?)
— What’s up with this foursome? Treasuries and gold maybe, but Nasdaq and Bitcoin do not compute. — Historically gold is not a glistening investment — We have seen the infatuation with tech before and it has not ended well. — Bad recollections of the demises of the ‘Nifty Fifty’ or the Covid Playbook … SELL ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE, BUY…
“Bank turmoil isn’t over” –Maybe
— The narrative exists that we are not out of the woods yet on our banking problems. — That seemed to be top of mind for investors selling stocks on the heels of today’s 1/4 point bump in the Fed funds rate. — In this skittish environment do nothing with rates — my sentiment exactly…
A crummy week in the market: Impending disaster or opportunity knocking
— Preamble — The Fed finally broke something — Prudence would argue for a less hawkish stance on the part of the Fed — We’ve been this way before … scared/panicky, but not it is the end of the world — So what? Now what?…
Another Trip to The Crossroads … We are not holding our breath!
— Every time Jerome Powell speaks, the Fed Open Market Committee (OMC) meets, the OMC minutes are released, the market goes into a state of suspended animation. — After a year of consistent messaging and rapid tightening you would think the policy message would be clear. — “Higher for longer” even if the jobs data (released this…
Inflation / Recession Obsession Win’s the Day!
— “Where Is GDP Headed? Don’t Ask an Economist!” — Recent economist’s predictions on PCE inflation + .5%. It came in at +.6% — A 1/10% miss on economist’s forecast creates negative media feeding frenzy. — Feeding the Inflation/Recession Obsession, starving perspective “Where is GDP heading? Don’t ask an economist.” With all due deference to my economist friends,…
CORRECTION—Bear market rally or next leg in a secular bull market”
March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq composite hit a then all-time-high of 5132.52. The closing subsequent low after the World Trade Center attack 9/11/2000 came in October of 2002 at 1108.49. I don’t see this time being as severe. By the same token I do see (Should read “do not”) the somewhat dubious rallies in Meta (beating…
Bear Market Rally or Next Leg In Secular Bull?
–The market won’t bottom until we are in the depths of a recession–Wrong! — Recent market action on the upside has brought the ‘boo birds’ out in force. — Good news … bring it! Sentiment continues to stink –– Forget ‘hard landing’ or ‘soft landing’, ‘touch and go’ may be closest description (if we land at all) and, as usual, the…