— What was the market expecting him to say? — Is “Mission Accomplished” the right message at this time? — Is 2% the right target? “Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down”(CNBC) What was the market expecting? Please don’t say: ‘all clear’, ‘everything’s great’,’ inflation is but a dark remnant of our distant…
Why energy demand should be the last thing you worry about when investing in oil stocks
— Demand concerns no longer make sense as a negative in the energy investment process — The game has changed — In the new world of hydrocarbons it’s all about capital discipline and supply management. — The Exxon (XON) / Pioneer (PXD) deal and Chevron (CHV) / Hess (HES) deals are emblematic of this shift. Demand Concerns According to…
Head Fake: Irrational Fear Still Grips The Market
— Fed week this week and the ritual continues. — Armageddon continues on hold rebuffed by continuing good economic and earnings reports. — A few words about inflation — If you believe the Fed’s rhetoric the 10-year US treasury note near 5% yield is the deal of the decade. I composed this piece on the weekend. Even with…
Flight-to-safety assets: Are they really safe?
— Gold got a new lease on life in October, up over 12% month-to-date on interest rate driven recession fears and the recent armed action between Israel and Hamas. — Bitcoin has soared since September, up 28%, in part on flight-to-safety buying and in part due to recent speculation about the SEC allowing the sale…
“Ball of Confusion” or “Eve of Destruction” — The Ugly Continuum
— Many investors today search for clarity or gird themselves for the worst. — “Higher for longer” in Fed rhetoric may be a hidden positive — Why this time (I know it is dangerous to say) may be different — Unique positives. The search for clarity and preparation for the worst In times like these it is alway good to…
Is it “Groundhog Day” … or should we call this movie “Back to the Future?”
— August CPI, due 9/13/23 becomes another focal point / the inflection point du jour. — A look back on US rate structure gives perspective (higher for longer?) — Still very constructive on the market with caveats on sector and valuation For the market every day is Groundhog Day Wouldn’t you like to wake up…
China Contagion, Powell’s Speech and Nvidia — Make or Break Moments For The Market?
— Chinese economic softening gaining prominence as a reason for caution (maybe fear) — “Nvidia Beats Big, and Powell Doesn’t Rock the Boat. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.” — Fear, distrust and skepticism — The key ingredients China Contagion — plus What About Taiwan? Chinese GDP growth in the first half of 2023 was 6.3% (year-over-year). In 2022,…
The Dangers Of Falling Prey To VIX-ation
— VIX-ation defined — “The Stock Market Is Falling. Why It’s Time to Get Happy,” … makes perfect sense — Changing investor mindsets: human nature often leads us in the wrong direction — I am Kort Sessions with over 53 years of investment experience–42 as an investment professional. My aim is to provide real life perspective and context…
The week that was: ‘The more things change, the more they stay the same’
— A meaningless rating cut by Fitch gives the market an excuse to take a rest — Media and Fed chatter try to bring the bulls back to earth — Should we worry? (An alternative answer) Fitch US Treasury debt downgrade gives market an excuse to rest tent of the As many of you already know Nikola Swann, analyst with…