— Why freaky? We continue to plow the same ground and saw the same sawdust we have for the past 13 years. — The media provides zero perspective as the “good news is bad news” narrative continues to rule. — Money continues to pour into bulletproof tech as a safe haven from an illusive, rate driven, yet to…
Market Melt-Down: What changed?
— Trying to figure out, based on previous Fed statements, why the current OMC meeting statement is so shocking and bad news. — New negatives, based on media commentary, seem to be the same negatives that have been with us ever since Fed began to lower rates — A new hitch in the ridiculous government shutdown…
Market Default: Buy Tech!
— Bulletproof tech–the NASDAQ composite and QQQ’s made new all-time highs Friday 13, 2024. — The heavily “Magnificent Seven”-weighted S&P 500 (approx. 36% of the index’s total market value in “Mag Seven names”) is down less than 1% from its record high recorded a week ago. — Everything else seems to be in for liquidation … the Dow (minus 3% in…
Nail-biting on the Nvidia quarter and Bond Vigilantes vs. The Flight-to-Safety Crew
— There may be another explanation for the weakness in the US Treasury 10-year note prices, i.e. interest rates rising and it is not fear of renewed inflation. — Flight-to-Safety buyers may be feeling safer, willing to take on more risk. — Regardless of the appearance higher rates are a good thing. They are a sign of…
Bond Vigilantes Fire Warning Shots
— “Higher for Longer” last October sent the yield on the 10-year US Tsy. note up to 5% … an odd reaction. — The 1/2% cut in the Fed funds rate this September sent the 10-year rate plummeting to 3.6% … also an odd reaction. — Yesterday, November 15, 2024, the note closed yielding 4.445%, 56 basis…
Black Swan vs. White Swan
— Eight years ago my initial reaction to the then surprise election of Donald J. Trump was that it was a black swan but we’d survive it. — I had to change my tune the next day when the market took off like a rocket. — This morning half of the country is in a state of…
What’s wrong with this picture–Fed easing with the yield on the 10-year UST back over 4%?
— The answer is not complex and the reason for the tick upward in this rate is positive–a return of confidence. — The role of the ten-year in many investment eco-systems — Lack of nuance in today’s crudely-programmed AI trading systems and media without perspective are at fault. Plain talk on yesterday’s’s reversal The 10-year US Treasury note…
Middle East Oil Risks: Maybe not as bad as you think.
— Comments on a possible Israeli retaliation against Iranian energy assets give the market the shakes. — I believe, should it occur, it might lead to an unexpected outcome. — Oil market fundamentals since 2020 would tend to argue against this being a huge or long-term negative (or positive for oil prices). — The myth of “Drill…
“Nvidia has become the world’s ‘most important stock,’ … “
— Datapoint dread: Market goes flat to down awaiting NVDA earnings. — The author of the headline above should be more nuanced. — My nuanced re-write: Nvidia has become the tech sector of the market’s most important stock. Datapoint Dread Today’s market seems to have become totally obsessed with the short-term, focusing on the ‘most important’ datapoints each week….
What Just Happened?
–Hard for me to rationalize today’s total market collapse based on the continuing facts on the ground — Hard for me to believe in a market where the publication of two single data-points (Unemployment Claims coupled with a weak ISM report) can wreck havoc on prices up and down the investment food chain. — Is anyone doing fundamental…