— The narrative exists that we are not out of the woods yet on our banking problems. — That seemed to be top of mind for investors selling stocks on the heels of today’s 1/4 point bump in the Fed funds rate. — In this skittish environment do nothing with rates — my sentiment exactly…
A crummy week in the market: Impending disaster or opportunity knocking
— Preamble — The Fed finally broke something — Prudence would argue for a less hawkish stance on the part of the Fed — We’ve been this way before … scared/panicky, but not it is the end of the world — So what? Now what?…
Another Trip to The Crossroads … We are not holding our breath!
— Every time Jerome Powell speaks, the Fed Open Market Committee (OMC) meets, the OMC minutes are released, the market goes into a state of suspended animation. — After a year of consistent messaging and rapid tightening you would think the policy message would be clear. — “Higher for longer” even if the jobs data (released this…
Inflation / Recession Obsession Win’s the Day!
— “Where Is GDP Headed? Don’t Ask an Economist!” — Recent economist’s predictions on PCE inflation + .5%. It came in at +.6% — A 1/10% miss on economist’s forecast creates negative media feeding frenzy. — Feeding the Inflation/Recession Obsession, starving perspective “Where is GDP heading? Don’t ask an economist.” With all due deference to my economist friends,…
CORRECTION—Bear market rally or next leg in a secular bull market”
March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq composite hit a then all-time-high of 5132.52. The closing subsequent low after the World Trade Center attack 9/11/2000 came in October of 2002 at 1108.49. I don’t see this time being as severe. By the same token I do see (Should read “do not”) the somewhat dubious rallies in Meta (beating…
Bear Market Rally or Next Leg In Secular Bull?
–The market won’t bottom until we are in the depths of a recession–Wrong! — Recent market action on the upside has brought the ‘boo birds’ out in force. — Good news … bring it! Sentiment continues to stink –– Forget ‘hard landing’ or ‘soft landing’, ‘touch and go’ may be closest description (if we land at all) and, as usual, the…
“Stock Market Worries for the Start of 2023: The Fed, Payrolls, and Mercury in Retrograde(!).”
— My title emanates from a year-end editorial header in a well-regarded financial magazine. — When all else fails to convey the gravity of the moment, invoke in the astrologer. — Warren Buffett commentary on gravity and rates worth considering — Bifurcation in reverse “Second verse same as the first or Wax on Wax off”…
“The Market Is Not Cheap” … or Is It?
— Is the S&P 500 PE expensive? Maybe in a perspective-free environment the answer is ‘yes’. But I am not perspective-free. — In today’s media environment there are legions of market analysts who would say it is overvalued vs. historical the lows in the late ’70s and early ’80s where high rates and inflation pushed…
Perspective: The Key to The Market Vault!
— Perspective is the number one biggest shortcoming in the coverage of financial and market news. — I examine perspectives on inflation, rates and recessions. — Lack of perspective stems from two causes: The lack of (or willingness to dig for) historical comparisons or the omission of known facts that might soften the fearful impact of a headline….
When Investing, Please Leave Your Politics At The Door!
— In our polarized world your politics can be hazardous to your performance — Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water — The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign — Market reaction going into (and coming out of) the 2022 midterm election has…