— Will the Bulls have Christmas? — “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns … ” — An apt description of the new world of Covid Omicron. — Worst case scenarios — Too Much Information — the number of mutations on the spiked protein — Take a deep breath….
Return to the Covid playbook–E Unum Pluribus(?)
— Friday’s Market … A return to the Covid playbook … Sell economically sensitive, buy growth. — Pardon my untutored use of Latin: E Unum Pluribus … Out of One Many (may suffer). — Covid’s uptick in Europe maybe an excuse for a slight correction but not the end of a secular bull market …Buy…
“Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.”
— What’s wrong with this headline? I believe a lot. — A quintessential example of the media turning a silk purse into a sow’s ear — Most of America should be celebrating the economy. If they are not it is because the media is telling them things are bad. What is wrong with my title headline? Barron’s columnist, Randall…
UST 10-year rockets — a misguided attempt at beating the Fed to the punch
— A flight to safety … the yield on the 10-year treasury drops 15% in two weeks in a raging bull market. — For some investors (computerized or not) fears of higher interest rates and inflation trump a rip-roaring economy with a tankful of fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy as far as the eye can…
Tuesday’s Market Bloodbath: Is Still “Much ado about nothing”
–Tuesday September 28, 2021 showed us a very predictable market reaction to No New News, save greater conviction that inflation may not be that transient and rates will be going up. –Market participants (including their computers) have been conditioned by the media to react in this way over decades and there is no nuance with the…
The Big Lie About The End of Quantitative Easing and Other Media Malpractice
–There is a falsehood constantly perpetuated by the media that the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) will be bad for the market and you should worry about it. –This is hard to imagine given that the emergency which brought us QE has passed, and QE’s ability to keep rates lower may be greatly exaggerated. –Why is it that Chairman…
September … the worst month for stocks … imminent corrections and other things that scare us
–Is September as bad for stocks as the media would have you believe? –Is a significant correction imminent, and does the “September effect” make it more likely? –The bifurcated market … the shoe may be moving to the other foot. September, bad for stocks? The truth will set you free. The freedom I’m referring to here is the…
If you think our current inflationary bump is just a hiccup, I’ve got a bridge for sale!
— There is mounting evidence that the current bump in inflation is just the beginning of a longer-term trend toward higher prices. — Higher labor costs, insourcing to secure our supply chain and exogenous pressures on raw materials will be the main culprits. — The media will have a field day since this supposed bad…
Tapering isn’t Tightening and Delta dissected
— The media wants you to believe that the tapering of quantitative easing is a big deal with a potential bad outcome (“if it bleeds, it leads”) … the exact opposite is the case. — Covid Delta as a weapon of mass economic destruction … another media obsession … is this round two? — Why the facts on the ground would…
A fact that is not completely factual: The market sets record highs!
— Record market highs we are experiencing relate more to capitalization weighted indices than strength in the average stock composing those indices — Tear apart the numbers and the results show we have been in a significant downturn in the simple average stock since February 2021 — “Aren’t you worried? The market just keeps going up and up!”…