— August CPI, due 9/13/23 becomes another focal point / the inflection point du jour. — A look back on US rate structure gives perspective (higher for longer?) — Still very constructive on the market with caveats on sector and valuation For the market every day is Groundhog Day Wouldn’t you like to wake up…
China Contagion, Powell’s Speech and Nvidia — Make or Break Moments For The Market?
— Chinese economic softening gaining prominence as a reason for caution (maybe fear) — “Nvidia Beats Big, and Powell Doesn’t Rock the Boat. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.” — Fear, distrust and skepticism — The key ingredients China Contagion — plus What About Taiwan? Chinese GDP growth in the first half of 2023 was 6.3% (year-over-year). In 2022,…
The Dangers Of Falling Prey To VIX-ation
— VIX-ation defined — “The Stock Market Is Falling. Why It’s Time to Get Happy,” … makes perfect sense — Changing investor mindsets: human nature often leads us in the wrong direction — I am Kort Sessions with over 53 years of investment experience–42 as an investment professional. My aim is to provide real life perspective and context…
The week that was: ‘The more things change, the more they stay the same’
— A meaningless rating cut by Fitch gives the market an excuse to take a rest — Media and Fed chatter try to bring the bulls back to earth — Should we worry? (An alternative answer) Fitch US Treasury debt downgrade gives market an excuse to rest tent of the As many of you already know Nikola Swann, analyst with…
Jerome: Tough Talk on Inflation Without Persuasive Evidence
— Powell talks tough on the inflation fight two weeks in a row without persuasive evidence that the Fed needs to do more. — Threatening rate increases or actually implementing them does not mean the Fed is removing the liquidity punchbowl. — The market seems to be chomping at the bit to begin the next stage of the secular bull…
For the BOO Birds good news is not news!
— Existential crisis averted (a tentative debt limit agreement) … a new (old) crop of negatives emerge. — Congress may balk as deadline approaches … or what about the employment numbers this week, inflation, the next Fed meeting or, horrors, a recession? — A return to the Covid playbook (without the Covid) — sell Economic sensitivity, buy growth. — The…
Market shrugs off doom while investors show preference for gold over stocks — what gives?
— We’ve seen this movie before … gold did ok, but what about stocks? — The last time we saw this preference for gold was 10 years ago. Why? — Waiting for the last shoe to drop is not a recipe for market success. — Markets are forward looking … This is an essential concept! We’ve seen this movie…
Debt Ceiling: The Great Distraction
— The debt ceiling, a tempest in a teapot, will be addressed. — The media frenzy surrounding the DC distracts from important progress on other issues. — Accentuating the positives! The Tempest In a Teapot What I’m about to discuss should not be construed as an endorsement of our current national debt position (about $31…
Flights to Safety: Treasuries, Gold, Nasdaq (?) and Bitcoin (?)
— What’s up with this foursome? Treasuries and gold maybe, but Nasdaq and Bitcoin do not compute. — Historically gold is not a glistening investment — We have seen the infatuation with tech before and it has not ended well. — Bad recollections of the demises of the ‘Nifty Fifty’ or the Covid Playbook … SELL ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE, BUY…
“Bank turmoil isn’t over” –Maybe
— The narrative exists that we are not out of the woods yet on our banking problems. — That seemed to be top of mind for investors selling stocks on the heels of today’s 1/4 point bump in the Fed funds rate. — In this skittish environment do nothing with rates — my sentiment exactly…