This is the kind of headline that makes a contrarian want to hit the exits–When everybody’s in who will be left to buy? The stats and interview commentary that accompany this headline from a prominent financial daily are pretty scary too given a lack of historical perspective. We provide the prospective to quell the nail-biting. “Bull…
Tax Hikes: The Market Says, “Meh”
The opening salvo in the tax debate has been fired The salvo concluded on Thursday with a proposal suggesting a top tax rate on income of 40.8% and 23.8 on capital gains for those making over $1 million dollars a year. This follows a proposal to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. So…
When in doubt, return to the Covid-19 playbook!
The Covid Playbook It is simple … sell the old economy (cyclical), value and anything considered risky (small cap). buy large cap, dependable growth (tech), i.e. the bulletproof, the innovators. Valuation doesn’t matter you just need to be somewhere with immunity to the economic ravages of the renewed pandemic. We just saw this occur over the…
The real “Doctor Doom” is back and he’s gloomy
Who is the real “Doctor Doom?” Why, it is none other than Henry Kaufman, former chief economist at Salomon Brothers, after a long repose out of the limelight. Not only is he back, but he is loaded for bear … he ” … Sees Danger in the Markets and Economy.” (you need WSJ or Barron’s…
Are You Smarter Than A Computer?
The answer is … It depends on who is programing the computer … GIGO (Garbage in/ Garbage out) for Pete’s sake! This is important when considering the daily/weekly gyrations of the stock market.“In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.”…
Interest rates and stocks: Heads you lose … Tails you lose!
The Great Conundrum In January of 2020 the 10-year US Treasury opened the new year trading with a yield of 1.8%. The S&P 500 was on its way to a 4.6% gain and a new record high by February. Then Covid-19 hit and in the flight to safety that followed the 10-year yield went below one half…
The Death TINA (There Is No Alternative)
Wait a minute! The reports of TINA’s demise may be greatly exaggerated. If the acronym TINA is not part of your daily vocabulary, I can understand. The concept of “there is no alternative” is a term some market savants have used to explain the market’s strength over the past few years. There is no alternative to…
Record Highs–Yet So Much Fear
The Fear of Being Bitten Again “Besides the last eleven months, there have only been five other streaks where the VIX remained elevated above 20 for at least six months.” …
We and the markets are in for a dark period … NOT!
—”Double Dip–High Covid-19 infection rates and fresh restrictions imposed by governments have taken their toll oneconomic activity over recent months” (WSJ -1/22/21) —“.CNBC: Fauci: New data shows Covid vaccines may be less effective against some new strains” “It’s deja vu all over again” — Yogi Berra What’s old is new again Last week the market…
The Mob and The Market
–Unthinkable events … the market sails right through –Balancing changing politics, insurrection and asset allocation –Potential flies in the ointment—Interest Rates, Taxes and Inflation –The VIX provides a clue on market sentiment and direction Protest, insurrection and the market What is depicted in my opening image is civil disobedience, rightful protest to redress grievances. What…