Time to look backward: an S&P 500/Corona virus retrospective Even though the corona virus outbreak in China had been on investor radar screens since the first of 2020 the S&P 500 managed to claw its way to a new all-time high of 3338 January 23. That happened to be the day China cut off egress…
Nothing inspires confidence like an emergency Fed funds rate cut
— During the entire panic on the downside you had to ask ‘are things really that bad out there?’ — One also has to ask how does a cut of 50 basis points on the Fed funds rate positively impact the trajectory the COVID19 epidemic. — Fortunately, the answer may be ‘no’ to bullet number…
Blame it on the”Bern” … Really? Plus, the dreaded press conference.
I find my self incredulous (comments on the “Bern” and press conference to follow below) I find myself incredulous about the severity of the declines the past three days. I really shouldn’t be. The S&P had a terrific run last year … S&P 500 total return 31.48%. It is the damage being done on second…
Coronavirus continues its reign of terror
— COVID-2019 fears continue to dominate the market. — It is very hard to square the terror that surfaced Friday in bonds and gold with the evidence at hand. — Will coronavirus just be another obsession that falls by the wayside in the secular bull market? The S&P 500 is just 1.7% from a new…
“I’m done with fossil fuel” stocks
— When I see comments like this, especially from the likes of Jim Cramer (Squawk on the Street, 2/7/20), it gives me pause. — Cramer’s ‘big call’ history is more than a bit spotty. — Flawed as the much-heralded concept of ‘peak oil’ was back in 2008, writing the obituary for thefossil fuels industry may be a bit premature. When…
” … Corona virus to ‘paralyze China,’ don’t buy the dips” — a wannabe epidemiologist
— This grave assessment is not my own but that of Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and ex-Pimco CEO. — From the point of view of the media source it emanated from, CNBC, it is a great headline … wonderful click bait — Should it be part of your decision process? Is El-Erian credible?…
Markets and Media gird themselves to face a new challenge
2019’s big concerns evaporate Last week I attended an investment committee meeting for a small foundation for which, I serve as a board member. One of our members, a financial planner/ investment advisor, serves as a liaison to the street and his firm provides the committee with investment and economic commentary. His report led with…
“Everyone Seems to Be Bullish … Here’s What could Go Wrong”
What a buzz kill … I was just beginning to think “full Speed ahead” was the order of the day. A tale of these potential woes was laid out this morning (8:57 ET–1/4/2020) in a post by CNBC markets editor Al Lewis. Though the article pulls no punches, it really is just a restatement of…
“Damn the torpedoes … full speed”…ahead!
My title today derives from a quotation attributed to rear admiral David Farragut during the 1864 Battle of Mobile Bay. The actual sequence went more like this: “From his high perch, where he was lashed to the rigging of his flagship, USS Hartford, Farragut could see the ships pulling back. “What’s the trouble?” he shouted through…
“Bull markets often end with a euphoric rally called a ‘blow-off top.’ We may have just had one”
Another ‘OMG’ moment from the financial media They must be doing this on purpose (click bait) because no serious observer of the markets could even come close to calling the market’s action over the past few weeks a blow-off top. However, CNBC found themselves an analyst (a serious observer) who would make that assertion, Ned…