You have to be kidding me! This headline from CNBC greeted me this morning and appears to give us a significant reason for the Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ indices suffering a sharp decline today. It is just one more instance of media hype on two non-sure-things … a recession is imminent and that a…
“Ladies and gentlemen we have a ‘Black Swan'” — Revisited
Election 2016 a major negative surprise for investors? Initially, I thought it would be. Early the morning of the day after I posted, Ladies and gentlemen we have a Black Swan (11/9/2016). I mean based on the polling, which turned out to be dead wrong, there looked to be little chance that we’d ever see…
Presidential trade pronouncements, a real concern or a tap on the brakes?
— First and foremost, this is not meant to be a political opinion piece. — It is meant to be a discussion of my views on recent market action and what appear to be some interesting patterns (coincidences) that I have observed in tandem with the May, 2019, record high and the July 26, 2019…
Beware the June Jobs Report!–A counterpoint
Why? Because the ADP private payrolls report, issued Wednesday July, 3 missed analysts’ expectations, coming in at a meager 102,000 new private sector jobs being created in June. This sets the stage for a miss on the government jobs report due tomorrow and in the eyes of most media savants and pundits this signals a…
“The president is the Yankees and Powell is the Toledo Mud Hens.”
Thus spake Jim Cramer … Wednesday morning June 19. Previously in the “Squawk on the Street” segment he opined, “Powell is living in a conventional world,” not the World of Trump. Powell’s conventional world is a place where you try to get the near-impossible (monetary policy) right. It is a world that involves meticulously working…
Pre-emptive Fed Strikes + Having It Both Ways
Dumb and Dumber Just when you thought media/pundit commentary on the market and the economy couldn’t get anymore inane and stupid, they surprise you by plumbing a new depth. This article from CNBC, “These charts show how Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the most important thing to the market now,” is a solid gold example. Of…
Flight to Safety: “All that glitters is not gold!” — William Shakespeare
A Retraction Before getting into the meat of this post covering the last ten years of ‘Flights to Safety’ and gold as a flight-to-safety asset, I need to take back all the nice things I said about Barron’s last week because they went back to the dark side this week (“The Dow Celebrates Five Weeks…
“The Trade War Will Make Stocks Scary. 5 Reasons Not To Panic.” Barron’s
Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due I spend a lot of time on this blog bashing the media for fear-mongering, pandering to mankind’s propensity to run its mind to the dark side. You know … if it bleeds it leads. The tendency for them is to inundate us with stories, lacking in perspective, that lead…
‘The only reason to keep the stock market open is to see how foolish people can be.’ anon.
Actually, I think this is a Warren Buffett quote but I could not document it. Buffett believes that when you buy something you should be willing to hold it even if the market were to be closed for the next ten years. He subscribes to the idea that day-to-day fluctuation in prices are based on…
File this one under, “You Have To Be Kidding Me!”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 162.77 points today. Because the financial media feels compelled to explain every jiggle in the market the folks at CNBC proclaimed the “Dow drops more than 150 points after Fed’s Powell dashes rate cut hopes.” They went on to say that on one word uttered by Chairman Powell when talking…