— Seems like everybody wants to get into the act … St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Fed Governor Waller call for stronger measures to fight inflation. — Though we value free speech, should the Fed speak with one voice when it comes to monetary policy? — Are opinions and forecasts based on the “dismal science” of…
Bitcoin: Safe Haven or Inflation Hedge?
— Point/Counterpoint from Brian Kelly (inflation hedge) and Coin Desk’s Emily Parker (safe haven). — A third possible answer … maybe neither. — Revisiting an old friend, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER), not a safe haven short term but a store of value and inflation hedge long term. The Great Bitcoin Debate In the clips I’ve attached “Fast…
Bubbles and Bear Markets: One size does not fit all!
— The Tech and Innovation bubble has burst — Investors heavily involved in this space are definitely in a bear market (a narrow bear market). — Cathie Wood for the defense — Words of wisdom from Morgan Stanley …Caveat Emptor — Parting thoughts The tech and innovation bubble has burst There is no question about it. A proxy…
Inflation and War Talk … Sawing Sawdust Again
— Media fright fest … This week they turned up the volume on old news, sawing sawdust again. — Inflation … Should it really be making us and the market crazy? — War in Eastern Europe … What’s the impact on iPhone demand? Media Fright fest If I were the head of a major media empire last…
Growth and Innovation: The Bloom Is off The Rose
— When you see the carnage in growth/tech/inovation it is easy to jump to wrong conclusions – DON’T! — The ARKK fund becomes the poster child for the unwinding of the bifurcated market — The negatives that face the market … the economy, Covid Omicron, the Fed, Inflation, Russia and China … Are they insurmountable? — Growth vs. Value. The…
Is that gorilla in the room an 800 pounder or 80 pounds?
— The gorilla, of course, is Fed policy and rising interest rates. — For certain segments of the market (Big Tech/The Innovators in particular) it rightly looms large. — For the rest of the market Wednesdays action was an exercise in ‘sawing sawdust’, reacting in a predictable way to old news. — The market sends a clear…
Covid Omicron in rear view mirror — Will we be so lucky with Fed policy?
— “Think the Fed’s already tightening? Not so fast.” (Barron’s) — As Omicron fades into the dust as a market disrupter, inflation and interest rates will return as the the preeminent negative market obsessions. This should not be a deal breaker for the market. — Thoughts on 2021 and 2022 “Think the Federal Reserve is already tightening? Not so…
Teeing up the market for the next disaster–Fed obsession continues
— An eight basis point drop in the US Treasury 10-year yield portends Fed action to slow the economy — Will the dreaded taper come sooner and be at a faster pace than already feared? — Inflation … according to one pundit the so-called “whisper” number on the Producer Price Index to be released tomorrow is…
The Omicron Muddle: Opinion Versus Fact
— The market is being pummeled by a barrage of opinion on the Omicron variant of Covid 19. — There is a great divergence of opinion: the Moderna view vs. the Oxford view. — The facts that are available would seem to indicate that the market may be over-reacting on the downside. A barrage of divergent opinion on Covid…
Covid Omicron: The bears have Thanksgiving
— Will the Bulls have Christmas? — “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns … ” — An apt description of the new world of Covid Omicron. — Worst case scenarios — Too Much Information — the number of mutations on the spiked protein — Take a deep breath….