— It’s all about the history you don’t know — We have been this way before, and rates and inflation were much worse — Historic fact does not matter … pessimism reigns supreme. — Blood in the streets + horrible sentiment + attractive valuation = Time to be greedy The history you don’t know may…
Good news is bad news and bad news is good in today’s upside down market
Pundit #1: This market is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions. Investor: What do you mean, “biblical”? Pundit #2: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Investor, real wrath of God type stuff. Pundit #1: Exactly. Pundit #2: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Pundit #3: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…
If bull markets are “born on pessimism,” where are we now?
— Investor sentiment evidence would argue these most recent contractions are for real! — Why investor perceptions differ greatly from reality — lack of perspective and media more interested in getting their attention than an unemotional presentation fo the facts. — Most of the market away from the large cap/tech heavy S&P 500 looks very attractive. — “Bull…
What has this market so spooked?
— Simple Answer: Negative headlines shoveled to investors without perspective — Case in point: the August CPI report — A few deep breaths and a little market history from our last major brush with high inflation and interest rates (the 1970s and 1980s) will put your mind at ease. Negative Headlines without perspective Here is the headline that crushed…
Friday, another day in the clueless market: What were you expecting Powell to say?
— It was a bit surprising to see the market rally into the Fed confab in Jackson Hole — Powell’s speech contained nothing that had not been said before and the “pain” that he is referring to is already being felt in certain inflated sectors. — Is a two percent long-rage inflation goal realistic /…
Who’s the dumber, people who try to predict the market or those who follow their advice?
— Predicting the market or “do you feel lucky, …” — Paradoxically the prediction business can be very profitable for some and not because their predictions are correct. — Being out at the wrong time — Its hard to get back in. — Observations on beating the market Predicting the market or “do you feel…
Are The Sellers Exhausted?
— When has being a seller into a well-anticipated event with negative implications for the market ever made any sense? — We have had 42 days full of hand-wringing and negative media to contemplate the July 27 Fed meeting … a for me the market has priced this in. — After all the higher rates, inflation, recession talk and extremely…
Has Warren Buffett Gone Mad?
— How could he be buying Occidental, an oil stock, amid a waterfall decline in the commodity? — Everybody knows the greening of the world spells doom for fossil fuels or does it? — Former oil company bad behavior changes in the fight for self-preservation. — My conclusions: Buffett is not mad. Why would Mr. Buffett buy a dirty, cyclical oil…
Should we be greedy?
— What is a “Ponzi”? — What just happened? A contrarian view of the first half 2022 — It’s the 1970’s all over again or is it?– A view from someone who lived every day of it as an investment professional — Investors continue to stare into the rearview mirror. “Recency bias” has never been a road to…
Inflation and Interest Rates: “Keep calm and carry on”
— And no, I do not have rocks in my head! — The continuous drone of the media and politicians about inflation and interest rate the horrors of out-of-control energy and food prices is a sentiment killer. — “After you get what you want you don’t don’t want it” — How to prosper from this discussion The…