— A series of new all-time index highs but no popping of corks — A flight to safety goes on under the surface–a 1.25% yield on the 10-year Treasury July 7, couple with a ‘risk off’ 7% drop in the Russell 2K since July 1 — Are we headed for an economic slow-down or recession? This question…
“The bond market agrees with the Federal Reserve — inflation is temporary” Huh!
— “Inflation has peaked.” — “The rate of growth has peaked at home and abroad, as well.” — “Investors of all stripes, foreign and domestic, are offsetting their exposure to equities by purchasing high quality Treasuries to provide ballast in their portfolios.” — “The spread of the Covid delta variant may slow global growth if…
The Stock Market: Dazed and Confused to The Max
— Two key historic characteristics of the stock market: It works to confuse and confound the maximum number of people most of the time while providing excellent long-term returns. — So-called “hawkish” commentary by the Fed is credited with sending stocks into a tailspin while, strangely enough, buyers showed up for the US Treasury 10-year which’…
Fed OMC day: Usually a good day be a stock buyer!
— Market history of the past 11 years confirms this assertion. — It is a gift given to us by the media … tales “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” –Today’s report was par for the course, causing a knee-jerk 382 point drop in the Dow followed by a barrage of inane, Powell parsing commentary….
Green Energy Throws Fossil Fuel a Life Line!
–The world goes green. Is that bad for conventional energy producers? –Game plan for a gravy train collapse –Supply response vs. higher prices may be different this time –As convoluted as this might seem green may be good for fossil fuel producers for some time to come. No Question: the world is going green Climate…
Taper Myths–Don’t let Them cost you money!
–The Fed can’t taper Quantitative Easing without really hurting the market. –Tapering of QE will signal a shift by the Fed to tighter monetary policy –Tapering will signal the end an era of Fed ease and the onset of higher inflation and interest rates, the market’s eventual downfall. –The “Worst” case and what happened to stocks,…
Leaping to the Wrong Conclusion
Leaping to the wrong conclusion is a daily event the stock market. Friday’s Jobs report provided a quintessential example. A retreat to the covid 19 playbook provides a comedy of errors ending in new all-time highs for both the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 with the Nasdaq composite, up on the day but down…
“Americans Can’t Get Enough of the Stock Market”–Big Problem?
This is the kind of headline that makes a contrarian want to hit the exits–When everybody’s in who will be left to buy? The stats and interview commentary that accompany this headline from a prominent financial daily are pretty scary too given a lack of historical perspective. We provide the prospective to quell the nail-biting. “Bull…
Tax Hikes: The Market Says, “Meh”
The opening salvo in the tax debate has been fired The salvo concluded on Thursday with a proposal suggesting a top tax rate on income of 40.8% and 23.8 on capital gains for those making over $1 million dollars a year. This follows a proposal to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. So…
When in doubt, return to the Covid-19 playbook!
The Covid Playbook It is simple … sell the old economy (cyclical), value and anything considered risky (small cap). buy large cap, dependable growth (tech), i.e. the bulletproof, the innovators. Valuation doesn’t matter you just need to be somewhere with immunity to the economic ravages of the renewed pandemic. We just saw this occur over the…