The Great Conundrum In January of 2020 the 10-year US Treasury opened the new year trading with a yield of 1.8%. The S&P 500 was on its way to a 4.6% gain and a new record high by February. Then Covid-19 hit and in the flight to safety that followed the 10-year yield went below one half…
The Death TINA (There Is No Alternative)
Wait a minute! The reports of TINA’s demise may be greatly exaggerated. If the acronym TINA is not part of your daily vocabulary, I can understand. The concept of “there is no alternative” is a term some market savants have used to explain the market’s strength over the past few years. There is no alternative to…
Record Highs–Yet So Much Fear
The Fear of Being Bitten Again “Besides the last eleven months, there have only been five other streaks where the VIX remained elevated above 20 for at least six months.” …
We and the markets are in for a dark period … NOT!
—”Double Dip–High Covid-19 infection rates and fresh restrictions imposed by governments have taken their toll oneconomic activity over recent months” (WSJ -1/22/21) —“.CNBC: Fauci: New data shows Covid vaccines may be less effective against some new strains” “It’s deja vu all over again” — Yogi Berra What’s old is new again Last week the market…
The Mob and The Market
–Unthinkable events … the market sails right through –Balancing changing politics, insurrection and asset allocation –Potential flies in the ointment—Interest Rates, Taxes and Inflation –The VIX provides a clue on market sentiment and direction Protest, insurrection and the market What is depicted in my opening image is civil disobedience, rightful protest to redress grievances. What…
The Market Floats In a Sea of Mines
“Damn the torpedo’s… Full speed” … ahead! I used this somewhat doctored quote from Union Rear Admiral David Farragut to title my final post of 2019. Back in the day (1864) the torpedoes Farragut was damning happened to be contact mines that were easily able to blow a ship out of the water. There were…
” … The Good News Is Already Baked Into Stocks.”
–Is it? Don’t buy this argument. –– A more elevated view and longer-term perspective yields an entirely different picture. –Stimulus and low interest rates world-wide seem under-appreciated as long-term drivers for the economy. –Using the analogy of baking a cake, we’ve just made the batter. The World According to Forsyth This was the take of…
Don’t let ’em scare you out of your stocks!
— No question … The market is overextended — Well known investor sentiment surveys are flashing red — Calls for caution become routine — How should you react? — Best advice … maintain the long view … the secular bull continues The market is over extended There is no question about this. During the month…
“Investors Are Gorging on Hyper-Bullishness as Turkey Day Nears”
— New concerns are raised over a big jump in investor sentiment— Both the Investors Intelligence and AAII surveys show moves to levels well above historical averages— The Media flashes caution signs, as usual, without perspective …— I still contend we are in the midst of secular bull market. Ignore the noise Okay, my title…
Interest rates are going thru the ceiling!–the next “BIG THING” to worry about
Humankind is a species that feeds on negative news aided by the media that knows how to feed that need The market appears willing to ignore really bad news on the virus front … an obsession on the way out The next big thing may be rising interest rates which will go hand in hand…