— The gorilla, of course, is Fed policy and rising interest rates. — For certain segments of the market (Big Tech/The Innovators in particular) it rightly looms large. — For the rest of the market Wednesdays action was an exercise in ‘sawing sawdust’, reacting in a predictable way to old news. — The market sends a clear…
Covid Omicron in rear view mirror — Will we be so lucky with Fed policy?
— “Think the Fed’s already tightening? Not so fast.” (Barron’s) — As Omicron fades into the dust as a market disrupter, inflation and interest rates will return as the the preeminent negative market obsessions. This should not be a deal breaker for the market. — Thoughts on 2021 and 2022 “Think the Federal Reserve is already tightening? Not so…
Teeing up the market for the next disaster–Fed obsession continues
— An eight basis point drop in the US Treasury 10-year yield portends Fed action to slow the economy — Will the dreaded taper come sooner and be at a faster pace than already feared? — Inflation … according to one pundit the so-called “whisper” number on the Producer Price Index to be released tomorrow is…
The Omicron Muddle: Opinion Versus Fact
— The market is being pummeled by a barrage of opinion on the Omicron variant of Covid 19. — There is a great divergence of opinion: the Moderna view vs. the Oxford view. — The facts that are available would seem to indicate that the market may be over-reacting on the downside. A barrage of divergent opinion on Covid…
Covid Omicron: The bears have Thanksgiving
— Will the Bulls have Christmas? — “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns … ” — An apt description of the new world of Covid Omicron. — Worst case scenarios — Too Much Information — the number of mutations on the spiked protein — Take a deep breath….
Return to the Covid playbook–E Unum Pluribus(?)
— Friday’s Market … A return to the Covid playbook … Sell economically sensitive, buy growth. — Pardon my untutored use of Latin: E Unum Pluribus … Out of One Many (may suffer). — Covid’s uptick in Europe maybe an excuse for a slight correction but not the end of a secular bull market …Buy…
“Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.”
— What’s wrong with this headline? I believe a lot. — A quintessential example of the media turning a silk purse into a sow’s ear — Most of America should be celebrating the economy. If they are not it is because the media is telling them things are bad. What is wrong with my title headline? Barron’s columnist, Randall…
UST 10-year rockets — a misguided attempt at beating the Fed to the punch
— A flight to safety … the yield on the 10-year treasury drops 15% in two weeks in a raging bull market. — For some investors (computerized or not) fears of higher interest rates and inflation trump a rip-roaring economy with a tankful of fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy as far as the eye can…
Tuesday’s Market Bloodbath: Is Still “Much ado about nothing”
–Tuesday September 28, 2021 showed us a very predictable market reaction to No New News, save greater conviction that inflation may not be that transient and rates will be going up. –Market participants (including their computers) have been conditioned by the media to react in this way over decades and there is no nuance with the…
The Big Lie About The End of Quantitative Easing and Other Media Malpractice
–There is a falsehood constantly perpetuated by the media that the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) will be bad for the market and you should worry about it. –This is hard to imagine given that the emergency which brought us QE has passed, and QE’s ability to keep rates lower may be greatly exaggerated. –Why is it that Chairman…