My title references the 1993, Bill Murray movie of the same name, where Murray plays an egotistical, obnoxious weatherman assigned to cover Punxsutawney Phil’s annual winter trip out of his burrow … very demeaning stuff. The problem for Murray’s character, Phil Connor (how ironic, another Phil) is that he becomes trapped in a time warp….
Words of Warning!
Warning–Seldom, in Stockmarket Land, do you get a broadly predicted outcome. Regarding today’s most broadly predicted outcome, my read is as follows: Stocks are up a lot and valuations are stretched (some say record highs–I disagree). The economy is weak, despite a 5.5% unemployment rate. When the Fed does move to raise rates, ‘game over.’…
The Great Interest Rate Mystery–Solved!
I have never seen so much ink and air/web time wasted on one topic … When and by how much, and over what period of time will short-term interest rates be moving higher? Speculation on these questions has been rife over the past two or three years (maybe even longer). The Fed, for the most part,…
Take something beautiful and drag it through the gutter
When I saw Jeff Sommer’s column, “Scoping Out a Phantom Recession”(May 24, 2015, NY Times), I thought I was in for a beautiful treat–the New York Times calling out an economist for a miserable call. And, initially that is what I got–Sommers taking the Economic Cycle Research Institute to task over making a highly confident…
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander
The other day I came across an article in MarketWatch that was trending number one on its “most popular” list (“Peter Schiff, more bullish than ever, sees gold heading to $5000 an oz.”) — (close 5/15/15@ $1223/0z.). The fact the author, Myra P. Seafong, chose to write on this is amazing. Even more jaw-dropping is…
The Bears Have It Both Ways!
Heads you lose! Tails you lose! Today’s post is a micro-market history of the first four months and six days of 2015; and, what the bears obsessed on. Coming into the new year things looked really dire to the bears. They were concerned about the precipitous fall in the price of oil. They said it…
Where’s all that sideline cash?
According to Mark Hulbert, the cash on the sidelines is a myth. What appears to be a bullish argument for the stock market turns out to be a compelling case for why it’s in trouble. I’m referring to the notion that a huge amount of cash is sitting “on the sidelines,” as investment professionals say….
The Market: Bull, Bear or Bunny Rabbit?
My thanks to friend and former client, Wade Slome, President and Founder, Sidoxia Capital Management, LLL, for providing a third animal comparator for the stock market … “The Bunny Rabbit Market.” This was the title of Wade’s monthly investment letter for April (The Easter Bunny edition), which loosely compares the volatility that grips our current market…
“Fear and Disgust”
Fear and disgust. This is how, in December of 1968, the Kansas City Star described the range of views held by the administration of the University of Missouri at Kansas City about campus-radical (student body president), Allan Katz. In the turbulent late sixties Katz was a constant irritant at UMKC. Years later he would be…
PANIC!–“Investors flee market at crisis level pace”
Despite the frightful headline, this snippet from CNBC contributor, Jeff Cox (a.k.a the ‘Bad News Bearer’), is really a very comforting and bullish commentary about current/recent market sentiment. Why? At major market tops “Investors (don’t) flee (the) market at (a) crisis level pace.” (May need to be a sub to view this link) They usually wait for…