‘Hoist by one’s own petard’ (blown up by one’s own bomb) is Murphy’s Law at work and the pundit’s worst enemy. Because, as soon as you put a prophecy out there, strange mechanisms go into play that make it very difficult for you to look anything but stupid. Yet there is a flock of people…
Session 109–Fear and Loathing on Wall Street
It never ceases to amaze me how rapidly market sentiment can shift. Last week was a perfect example; from ‘Fear and Loathing’ at the beginning of the week to a “Calm sea and Prosperous Voyage” at weekend (May 23, 2014). Of course, when this happens it is usually the media driving the train, picking news…
Session 108–“I Have a sick feeling…”
This is how technician, Ralph Acampora, frames the type of performance that might be ahead for the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq composite indices over the next few months. (Acampora interview–5/15/14) There is a part of me that finds his thinking very plausible, as the stock and bond markets have been acting very strangely of late….
Session 107–Geithner’s Book
Although I have yet to read former Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner’s book, “Stress Test: Reflections on a financial crises,” by virtue of the significant publicity generated and in-depth interviews conducted with Mr. Geithner (Charlie Rose), I do feel competent to comment on issues raised about the book and a persistent critique to the effect that…
Session 106–What’s up with the ten-year U.S Treasury Note?
Well, for one thing, the price is up. Conversely, the yield is down. As of 9:30 PM CDT, 5/8/14 the yield stood at 2.61%, down from 3% at the end of 2013. This, according to the media wonks and pundits, was not supposed to happen. Rates were supposed to go up as people fled the…
Session 105–It’s Demographics, Stupid!
It’s Friday May 2, 2014 and we get good news on the employment front. The unemployment rate has dropped to 6.3% from 6.7%…the lowest since the fall of 2008. The bad news is that one of the reasons for this precipitous drop is that there was a big jump in the number of people who…
Session 104–Gimme a Break!!!
CNBC’s President, Mark Hoffman, when queried on his proudest moment in the 25 year history of the network (April 30, 2014 was the 25th anniversary), answered: “The proudest I was of the organization was leading up to the crisis in 2008 and the year-and-ahalf, or so, that followed it. I felt as if all the…
Session 103–“Investors double down on dumb idea”
Before I decipher my title, I need to give well-deserved credit where credit is due. As you know kortsessions.com is all about going after the media on the fear, distrust and misinformation that it continually sows. Sometimes, however, they get it right. One columnist, who seems to pop up often on the right side (as…
Session 102–The Videos Never Lie.
Dennis Gartman, publisher of “The Gartman Letter,” is a very smart guy and (paradoxically) a trader. I have always said trading is very difficult, and that those who do it well are not only very clever (few and far between), but may have special instincts that allow them success. They guess right more often than…
Session 101–April is the new May?
Despite the title, session 101 is not about the weather or climate change. It is about that old market saw, “Sell in May and go away”…a reference to a quirky market seasonal pattern showing, on average, a greater propensity for market profits in the winter vs. less profits in the summer months. Mark Hulbert (The…