A friend, someone scared into an excessively conservative invested position by the 2008’s market crash, asked question the above. My answer was “No.” My reply was based on my long-term view detailed in “Session 7.” I believe world economies will continue to grow and, over time, due to competition for resources (Chinese and Indians becoming…
Session 48–A Battle of Wits Between Three Unarmed Opponents
The question asked and debated in the attached clip is; “Is distrust in Wall Street hurting the market?“ (see link at the end of this post) A better question might have been, “Is distrust in Wall Street and the market a positive or negative sign, vis-a-vis where we are in the current market cycle?” To…
Session 47–Bernanke Speaks!
Maybe our title should be, “Bernanke, et. al. Speak, Repeatedly”. For the most part, the message is the same: the tapering of QE will be data-derived and dependent on economic fundamentals in the United States, unemployment stats in particular. The Fed Chair addressed The National Bureau of Economic Research conference today. His topic was a…
Session 46–What Really Worries Me? Part I.
Well, it is not the economy, the “Dreaded Taper” or the market. The ten-year treasury closed Friday at a 2.71 % yield (up over 1% from where it was a month ago). It seems like the market has not only discounted tapering, which has not yet begun, but also some tightening on the part of…
Session 45–“Earnings Season”
Before venturing into one of my favorite topics, “Earnings Season”, I thought it might be useful to explain my reason for creating kortsessions.com. I started my blog to offer a sensible counterpoint to the 24/7 media/ political/ punditry cycle and its continuous barrage of bad news, misinformation and fear mongering. Most of this is noise, doing…
Session 44–Know When To Fold ‘Em!
Our title today emanates from that Kenny Roger’s classic, “The Gambler”…”You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em. Know when to walk away, know when to run.” It seems this is a lesson that has been lost on PIMCO founder, Bill Gross and his minions. Because Mr. Gross knew how…
Post, Post Script on Session 43–The Peoples Bank of China Speaks
After a prolonged silence during a week that saw a tremendous spike in SHIBOR (the Shanghai Interbank Offering Rate–the rate Chinese banks lend to each other) the Peoples Bank of China spoke earlier today. The Chinese market, after getting smashed earlier this morning, made a U-turn closing almost unchanged. The interbank rate had spiked to…
Session 43–The Double Whammy! China Implodes and QE Is Finite #%#&@.
In the last four trading days the “Double Whammy”, China worries and the QE taper, have revitalized the media and market volatility. Bad news is good news for the folks at Barron’s and CNBC. The market has tanked (S & P now down almost 6% from the May all-time high), the result of the aftershock…
Session 42–Taper Mania, Taper Tip-Off…Whatever…
Taper Mania, Taper Tip-Off, whatever you chose to call it, the obsession with this issue continues to rattle the market. Last I saw, the 10-year treasury was trading around a 2.35% yield in after-hours trading (up from around a 2.18% yield earlier in the day). Volatility has come to the treasury market. And all Bernanke…
Session 41–The Dreaded Taper
As “The Dreaded Taper” has become ‘the next big thing’ for the media and something for the media to obsess about (btw we called this shortly after “the dreaded sequester” turned out to be not-so-dreadful–see session 15), I thought it appropriate to do a session to frame this horrific problem. I hope it keeps you…