Jeff Sommer and his “Strategies” column in the New York Times has often have been the target of our slings and arrows, and we can’t resist one more shot. This Sunday’s business section in the Times carried an article penned by Mr. Sommer with the uncharacteristically bullish headline–“Forecast For A 20,000 Dow Still Holds.” Of course this is not Mr. Sommer’s forecast, but rather a prediction made by Seth J Masters, Chief investment Officer of Bernstein Global Wealth Management last July when the Dow was below 12,900. I will not go into the reasoning on Master’s prediction, but I do recommend that you view for yourself via the link we have provided. I will say that since I have been following Mr. Sommer’s work (Feb of 2013), he has pretty much been arguing against the market’s rise, even with the benefit of Mr. Masters wise counsel. We are linking you to session 8-“A Masterpiece of Uncertainty And Contradiction…” and session 31–“Dow 15000 And The Big Disconnect–Wall Street’s Giddiness vs. Main Street’s Pain.” In particular, with regards to Sommer’s comments in the February 25, article, pay attention to his remarks about investors plowing into the market like there was no tomorrow. The Sunday article does a complete reversal on this assertion. This goes to the heart of our thesis about the media and investing–paying close attention to what they say is counterproductive and hurtful to investment results.
What do you Think?
The information presented in kortsessions.com represents my own opinions and does not contain recommendations for any particular investment or securities. I may, from time to time, mention certain securities for illustrative purpose, names where I personally hold positions. These are not meant to be construed as recommendations to BUY or SELL. All investments and strategies should be undertaken only after careful consideration of suitability based on the risks, tolerance for risk and personal financial situation.
Bill,
Your point is well taken. The “pundits” simply rely on the fact that even a broken clock is right 2 times each day. Obviously they are less concerned with batting averages than with hoped for occasional home runs (even though most of them are just long foul balls).
From time to time you have mentioned information sources that you consider legitimate and which you respect. More input on these resources would be helpful and appreciated.
Thank you
Harold
Harold, as I don’t give stock recommendations in this blog (because I don’t want the tail responsibility for follow-up, research and maybe a sell recommendation), I don’t give pundit recommendations either. The sources that I mention in kortsessions are people that I have followed over the years on a very cursory basis. I think that they are credible, in part, because their thinking somewhat jibes with my own. As I am not always right (caveat Kort), they may run off the track too. And as I may not be looking when they do, I will not be there to sound the alarm. None-the-less, a mention in kortsessions may be a good starting point for your own due diligence.