In a last-ditch effort to corral additional votes in support of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, CNBC and “unnamed senior members” of the House of Representatives floated my header for this post. While I can understand the politics behind this headline … the sponsors are trying to scare up support for the bill, what I cannot understand is why CNBC would give it the light of day. For one thing the folks at CNBC know good and well that there is zero equivalency in the events surrounding these two crises. In 2008 we were struggling to keep a teetering world financial system afloat. Whether we slapdash address healthcare today or spend the needed time to put together really workable reforms is of no consequence to the economy of the world. Why? Because most of the other countries of the world have already dealt with healthcare.
Don’t get me wrong this is a serious problem (just not of 2008 magnitude). Just because you promised repeal and replacement does not mean it has to be done today. We need to spend serious non-partisan time trying to institute reforms to the heath care act that makes it work for all Americans. And, certainly, a thumbs-down on today’s proposal is not the end of the world, a la our unnamed senior Congressional source.
Here’s a little flavor from the report:
It happened in real life on Sept. 29, 2008, when the House first voted on a Wall Street bailout intended to stem the financial crisis. In a swirl of uncertainty, Republican members stampeded to “no,” defeated the measure and watched the Dow tumble by more than 700 points. The same thing could happen on the GOP health bill, a veteran member told CNBC on Thursday — only bigger.”
Importantly, John Harwood (the article and video) in his reporting raises the bigger issue of the ability of the GOP to govern now that they have power. If they can’t do this, maybe they can’t do tax reform or infrastructure. These are important issues if you have not thought about them before. I have. I believe that there is a lot good already going on in the US economic recovery that will be bolstered by the deregulation piece, something Congress does not have to approve. I believe that we may be in a synchronized world-wide economic recovery that, unless the GOP passes restrictive tariffs (Unlikely Period), will continue and be to our benefit. I believe the only way to solve any of our problems is bi-partisan cooperation and that the current tone and disarray in the Trump Administration might actually drive this. The White House seems to be uniting the parties.
Who cares if Republicans can govern on their own? It is the peoples’ representatives, regardless of party, that should be governing in the best interest of their constituents.
Finally, CNBC should be ashamed of the headline, content and tone of this article.
What do you think?
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It is a basic tenet of the stock market that uncertainty is not good. In general, our economy is good. Employment is up, there is mild wage inflation and growth happening in most of industry. On the OTHER hand, government seems to be doing all in its’ power to offset any good and tip the uncertainty. IF (a big IF) we can get the three branches to act in an adult manner we will see a strong growth cycle. I believe the government has 12 months to get its’ act in order or November 2018 will tilt the apple cart and throw the bums out.
Chal, I appreciate your comment. My question is do you believe that the tilt of the apple cart Means a resumption of Democratic control of either the House, the Senate or both and that this would be a bad thing? We still have divided government with a Republican in the White House. Also, as it pertains to the Democratic Party, thanks to Bernie Sanders there is the emergence of a more extreme left wing of the party. They could be as unruly as The tea party wing of the Republican party. I’m having trouble seeing much change unless we happen to be so fortunate as to elect a bunch of adults to these offices … not partisan hacks, more concerned about their re-elections than doing the public good. Historically gridlock has been good for the market… because they can’t seem to do anything to hurt us. It is hard to say what the impact of a change in political parties dominating control might lead to. There were many who believed second term for the Obama administration would be a disaster. They put their money where their mouth was after the 2012 election and sold. The market has advanced 50% since. There were also people freaked out by the election of Donald Trump. They also sold and find themselves out of the market That has increased substantially since the election. What I have discovered over the years is the fact that letting your political feelings run your investment decision process probably is not the best idea.