— The market is being pummeled by a barrage of opinion on the Omicron variant of Covid 19.
— There is a great divergence of opinion: the Moderna view vs. the Oxford view.
— The facts that are available would seem to indicate that the market may be over-reacting on the downside.
A barrage of divergent opinion on Covid Omicron
The market is being pummeled by a barrage of opinion, some of it very learned. For example Moderna CEO, Stephane Bancel, told the Financial Times he expects vaccines to be less effective against the new variant. On the counterpoint Oxford University issued a statement saying that there is no evidence yet that current vaccines will not protect against the Omicron variant. At the moment all of this is pure speculation, pro and con. That does not seem to make a difference with a market acting as if the sky were falling.
(you may need a subscription to CNBC Pro tp view)
The link attached to my sub heading above is to an interview with Dr. Angelique Coetzee, the South African physician who first identified Covid Omicron. She is a member of a worldwide team assigned by the WHO to be on the lookout for these variations.
The facts on the ground
According to Dr.Coetzee, so far what she has observed in her infected patients are mild symptoms, the type normally seen in run-of-the-mill viral infections. In an earlier interview she said that her first patient, a male, was about 33. After he tested positive with the new variant she tested the family. She indicated they were all infected. The first case showed up in South Africa on November 11. As of yet we are not hearing any horror stories from that region like the reports that came from our southern tier of states when the Delta version first emerged.
President Biden has reiterated that we will not react with lockdowns if worse comes to worst. I take him at his word, especially because we did not see any move in that direction with Covid Delta.
Finally, I have not seen Dr. Coetzee telling her story on any of our national media outlets. What a shame.
I believe there is but one way to view the current decline.
IT IS A BUYING OPORTUNITY.
What’s your opinion?
P.S. I still firmly believe “The Dreaded Taper –Posted 6/17/13” is a red herring. It will not materially change rates or credit availability. It is immaterial.