Kort Sessions
Perspective – The Media and Investing
Kort Sessions
black flat screen computer monitor

Having trouble making sense out of the market. The following might help!

— It’s all about the history you don’t know

— We have been this way before, and rates and inflation were much worse

— Historic fact does not matter … pessimism reigns supreme.

— Blood in the streets + horrible sentiment + attractive valuation = Time to be greedy

 

The history you don’t know may surprise!

We have been this way before …

and it was much worse than anything we are experiencing today. I survived buying my first home in 1975 with a 9%, 30-year mortage. My second in 1980 came at a much steeper price and mortgage … 11.5% 7-year arm. We survived it and prospered, especially if you were invested in a diversified portfolio of common stocks, away from the high multiple, one-decision stocks of the day (the “nifty fifty”).

History would indicate that the 1970s were much worse yet, as inflation raged the stock market did just fine.

 

1974

1980

CPI inflation (annualized)

11.04%

13.58%

10-yr UST yield: 1/1/1975-1/1/1981

7.5%

12.57%*

S&P 500: 1/1/1975-1/1/1981

72.56

133 (+83%)**

* The All-time high yield on the 10-yr. UST note was 15.82% (September 1981)

** The actual peak for the S&P 500 was 141.54 11/28/1980. The subsequent bear market low occurred 451 days later (2/22/1982) at 111.59, -20.59%. (Forbes.com)

Today the trailing 12 month number on CPI inflation is 8.2%

The yield on the 10 year US Treasury note is 4.2% The S&P 500 is 3752.75

Yes, inflation is high in relation to the 2% level we have enjoyed over the past couple of decades. This would seem to mark a secular change signaling the end to globalization. That 2% rate came at a price … jobs lost to inexpensive overseas labor and stagnant wage growth for our long-suffering middle class. It should moderate over time but don’t expect it back at 2% unless we have a complete economic collapse. My sense is that Mr. Powell is will moderate his stance long before that happens.

My question is, when was the last time your favorite media source mentioned these facts to calm your nervous heart? I personally can’t remember.

Despite the existence of factual evidence to the contrary pessimism reigns supreme

Why? The blame lays at the feet of the media. Most people don’t know the history and the media does not know it or hasn’t bothered to check. Their business is engagement and bad news sells. Since most people have had better things to do than study the market (many were not even alive in the 70s) their reliance on the media keeps them scared and uninformed. This has lead to months of negative sentiment stats coming out of the American Association of Individual investors (AAII). The attached link has their most recent sentiment survey and it can be used to look at the history of the sentiment surveyed over the years.

Blood in the Streets

The tech and innovation stocks (this generation’s one-decision stocks/”nifty fifty”) have been particularly hard hit. The group had run to extreme valuations. They were the cure-all during the early days of the pandemic vs. those companies considered sensitive to the economy, which had been shut down. They have imploded as the Fed has been raising rates to fight inflation.

As to the blood in the streets, the music stopped November 22, 2021. … NASDAQ since then is down 31 %, the Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK), the poster child for “all tech, all the time” was down nearly 80% at its low.

Interestingly the stodgy old (tech-lite) Dow is only down about 10% from the 52-week high it hit January 5, 2022.

Valuation a plus!

Valuations are pretty attractive with FAANGM [Facebook (Meta), Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google (Alphabet) and Microsoft] stocks = 20% of S&P 500 market capitalization (at peak 24%)*

The forward PE on the S&P 500 at 15.5. Ex FAANGM =15.1*

19.4 is the latest fifty year average PE** … 1900-1980 the average was 13.4***

Again, the Forward PE on the S&P 500 is at 15.5, while the S&P 400 (mid-cap) and S&P 600 (small-cap) rest at 11.2 and 10.8 respectively.*

After similar love affairs with high tech and High PE stocks in the “Nifty Fifty” era of the 1970s and the Tech “Bubble” of Y2K mid-cap and small cap stocks that languished during the period of tech domination took off.

These two areas should be fertile fields for investors going forward!

* Yardeni research                                                                        ** Valuescope                                                                                   *** finasko.com

Bottom line

We have been this way before, with high inflation and rates (only much worse,) with blood in the streets, horrible sentiment and attractive valuations for a large swath of the market. It turned out to be a great time to be in the market (excepting old high PE leadership). Don’t let the media scare you out of your stocks or investing.

What’s your take?

The information presented in kortsessions.com represents my own opinions and does not contain recommendations for any particular investment or securities.  I may, from time to time, mention certain securities for illustrative purpose, names where I personally hold positions.  These are not meant to be construed as recommendations to BUY or SELL.  All investments and strategies should be undertaken only after careful consideration of suitability based on the risks, tolerance for risk and personal financial situation. 

 

 
 
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