Late the evening of November 8, 2016 I wrote a post “Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan.” The Black Swan (unexpected, very rare) was the surprise election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. This was before the final tally of the vote was in. You may read the entire post…
Jeffrey Gundlach — S&P 500 headed to new lows
CNBC felt Gundlach’s commentary to be so valuable, so prescient that they ran this banner headline, “Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 is headed to new lows: ‘I’m pretty sure this is a bear market’”, two days in a row. BTW we are already very close to the S&P’s low of the year. A break to…
A ‘Bad Trip’ Down Memory Lane
The ‘bad trip’ I’m alluding to in my title was the type some substance experimenters used to get from self-administered hallucinogenic drugs like LSD (Lysergic Acid Diethylamide). This was the preferred trip-inducing substance of Harvard psychology professor Dr. Timothy Leary who thought it might have great potential in psychotherapy. “He used LSD himself and developed…
The beginning of the end
Or, is it the end of the beginning? Or, is it, as stated in the eloquent and somewhat humorous words of Sir Winston Churchill, ” … not the end. This is not even the beginning the end. But is perhaps the end of the beginning.” This line was delivered to the attendees at the Lord…
Thanksgiving 2018 — What I’m Thankful For.
I am thankful for the fact that in the market the more things change, the more they stay the same. As such, if you have the perspective of a historical viewpoint, there is not much that can freak you out, no matter how crazed and negative the media and punditry portrays a situation. I am…
“These are the times that try men’s souls”
Thank you Thomas Paine and CNBC contributors Fred Imbert and Ryan Browne for the title and inspiration for this post. Paine’s pamphlet “The American Crisis” penned during the Revolutionary War, did indeed reflect dire times in our history. Meanwhile, CNBC’s post-market post (Dow drops 200 points on worries about global economic growth–11/9/18) reflected on potential dire times in…
A Blue, Blue Wave + Aggressively Hawkish Fed: A Recipe For Disaster?
“The Sixty-Four Dollar Question” What’s gonna happen if the Democratic Party gets it’s Blue Wave this Tuesday? My thoughts are as follows: One way or another, this will be an obsession. If both houses go to the Democrats there will be a major media freakout/ feeding frenzy focusing on the negative: the Democrats … their business-unfriendly…
A prophecy from 1796
“Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally. This spirit, unfortunately, is inseparable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human mind. It exists under different shapes in all governments, more or…
Panic City & Cramer’s Revisionist Market History
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning” … Robert Duval as gung-ho, Lt. Colonel Kilgore in Francis Ford Coppola’s classic Vietnam film, “Apocalypse Now.“ In Kilgore’s case it was the “smell of victory” … not so for the market. Since Monday (10/8) it was napalm morning, noon and night for US equities, burning…
Worried About Stocks?: A Little History That Might Help You Sleep Better
We have seen this movie before … And many times. The United States Treasury 10-year note breaching a 3% yield (peaking last week at 3.248%) after another quarter point bump in the Fed funds rate (to 2.25%) has rattled the market again. “Again” is the operative word. This happens every time that the Fed moves…