“The Fed could be hiking us into a recession, investor Peter Boockvar warns.” This headline appeared Saturday (9/29) on CNBC’s web site. Are You Scared Yet? You probably shouldn’t be. First of all, if you look at the interview, it is hardly a full-blown warning of imminent disaster from Boockvar, though the CNBC header would like…
The Tradition Continues: September, the worst month to be in the market
“Stocks Roll Through Summer’s End. But Now Comes September” (you need a Barron’s subscription to view) It is September again and the perennially negative are out worrying about the calendar. “To paraphrase Mark Twain, September is a peculiarly dangerous month to speculate in stocks (Twain goes on to posit, to also paraphrase, so is every other…
“If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash, … ” –Donald J. Trump
For starters this is not a political post (despite the title). This is a factual post. For kortsessions followers this will not be new news, but I think a refresher may be in order. The reasons are two-fold: the media is beginning to chirp about the market being affected by the president’s deepening legal woes…
The “Humpty Dumpty” Syndrome
You all remember this one: Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king’s horses and all the king’s men Couldn’t put Humpty together again.[2] The United States stock market and world economy are today’s versions of Humpty, and the punditry and the media are beside themselves with worry…
Is the United States a “Stupid Country?”
People on both sides of the political spectrum, including our president, have made that assertion. Since I try not to do politics in kortsessions.com I will refrain from comment, other than to say what I see on the political front is very worrisome and that “stupid” (maybe even dangerous) could easily be used as a…
What could really tank this market?
Although the popular reasons continue to be The Fed raising rates (causing us to dip into recession), inflation (putting more pressure on the Fed to ratchet up rates) and trade wars (today’s favorite flavor based on a White House proposal — trial balloon or misstatement on the part of Secretary Mnuchin — to restrict Chinese…
“There’s something lurking out there … “
The CNBC headline goes on something “… that will upset the market.” So if nothing really is going on to upset the market just plant the idea that there is in your headline. That’ll get their attention. In response I might say that there is always something lurking that might upset stocks. That’s a fact…
Good news is still bad news and that’s good news!
Since secular bull markets generally end in a hail of good feelings and optimistic media and public pronouncements, it is safe to say we’re not there yet. Take this piece, for example from CNBC contributor Jeff Cox (a.k.a The Bad News Bearer–June 6, 2013): “When earnings look this great, it is actually a really bad…
Trust Me, inflation and higher interest rates are good for stocks …
Unless we are headed into a hyper-inflationary period such as that we saw in the mid 1970s and early 1980s. This is a nuanced situation. Most people writing about inflation and rates or programming computers that implement trading programs to react to news that might change their trajectory do not get the complexity of what…
A New Positive For The Market And Nobody Cares
Peace Breaks Out On The Korean Peninsula After 65 years of an armistice (signed July 27, 1953) the Korean War looks like it maybe heading to its conclusion with a full peace treaty … that is, of course, if the they and the other parties to the armistice, China and the United States, can come…