— “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — Knowledge of past market performance is a huge leg up. — Human nature does not change. Market Irrationality First of all you might not think this market is irrational, which means you probably are heavily invested in the AI/Magnificent Seven trade. Congratulations! You’ve made a lot…
Covid + Four: The Market Is At It Again
— A familiar, powerful but narrowing pattern emerges. — Last week’s preference for ‘safe, secure and the non-economically sensitive’ large cap tech propels the market to new records. — What’s the message? The Pattern The pattern is simply this: with the threat of economic weakness resulting from continuing higher (for longer) rates than investors had become accustom to over the…
And Then There Was One–Nvidia
— The “Magnificent Seven” became the “Magnificent One”–Nvidia — The Fed minutes trigger a market collapse on no new news — When it doubt, return to the Covid playbook. — My guess the reason to be primitive AI at work. “Mag 7” to “Mag 1”–Nvidia In the 1970s all you had to know was to be in the…
“Higher For Longer”: The market’s over it … you should be too!
– “Higher for Longer” should read “Normal for Longer” – The post-Covid, post-globalization era ushers in a world of permanently higher inflation. – A record 4.1 million “baby boomers” reach retirement age in 2024 … a potential new stressor for an already tight labor market. – This is all good news! Should “Higher For…
The Media Infotainment Complex Strikes Back
— Good news is bad news and bad news is bad news … having it both ways. — Hints of “stagflation” sends market into a swoon. — More to worry about (or not) in the coming week. The Media Infotainment Complex defined I am part of it, although I would not classify what I do as information or opinion…
The ‘Mag Seven’ components take big hits as boring may becoming beautiful
— Friday’s trade makes you wonder if the game is not over for the “Magnificent Seven”. — There appears to be a real divergence going on between those stocks that are considered economically sensitive and those previously considered ‘bullet proof’–Big Tech. — The market seems to finally be getting comfortable that the Fed message of “higher…
Algorithmic (High Frequency) Trading rears its ugly head again
— The glories of high-frequency trading were on full display last Thursday as the S&P 500 turned a 1% gain into 1.2% loss for the day — It was all about the noise … the potential for a good jobs number being bad news for the prospects of a rate cut. — Last Friday’s rebound may…
Nvidia: Friday’s Trade …Not a Good Look
— Nvidia trading on Friday may signal the end of the line for this ‘big tech / AI’ favorite . — Beware the ‘key reversal day’ as it may have implications for the ‘Magnificent Seven’. — Safe Bets — It is time for the ‘also-rans’ to shine! Nvidia, are we at the end of the line?…
Beware the ‘Data Point Market’
— ‘Data Point Market’ defined — Who wins, who loses? — The best way to play The ‘Data Point Market’ defined The key data point last week was the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Thursday February 29. This is supposedly a key inflation indicator for the Fed in its fight against inflation. A number at or…
A Cautionary Tale From The Y2K Tech Bubble And How to Profit From It–History Worth Noting!
— No question we have a bubble here, but it is not the entire market–W/O the ‘Mag 7’ S&P forward multiple is around 15.5. — The 20.4 forward multiple on the entire index appears to be all that many investors and market analysts see. This type of tunnel vision caused many to miss a great move in the broader…