–The market won’t bottom until we are in the depths of a recession–Wrong! — Recent market action on the upside has brought the ‘boo birds’ out in force. — Good news … bring it! Sentiment continues to stink –– Forget ‘hard landing’ or ‘soft landing’, ‘touch and go’ may be closest description (if we land at all) and, as usual, the…
Tag: CNBC
“Stock Market Worries for the Start of 2023: The Fed, Payrolls, and Mercury in Retrograde(!).”
— My title emanates from a year-end editorial header in a well-regarded financial magazine. — When all else fails to convey the gravity of the moment, invoke in the astrologer. — Warren Buffett commentary on gravity and rates worth considering — Bifurcation in reverse “Second verse same as the first or Wax on Wax off”…
“The Market Is Not Cheap” … or Is It?
— Is the S&P 500 PE expensive? Maybe in a perspective-free environment the answer is ‘yes’. But I am not perspective-free. — In today’s media environment there are legions of market analysts who would say it is overvalued vs. historical the lows in the late ’70s and early ’80s where high rates and inflation pushed…
If bull markets are “born on pessimism,” where are we now?
— Investor sentiment evidence would argue these most recent contractions are for real! — Why investor perceptions differ greatly from reality — lack of perspective and media more interested in getting their attention than an unemotional presentation fo the facts. — Most of the market away from the large cap/tech heavy S&P 500 looks very attractive. — “Bull…
What has this market so spooked?
— Simple Answer: Negative headlines shoveled to investors without perspective — Case in point: the August CPI report — A few deep breaths and a little market history from our last major brush with high inflation and interest rates (the 1970s and 1980s) will put your mind at ease. Negative Headlines without perspective Here is the headline that crushed…
Trying to figure out this market?
–If this market has you confused or fearful, join the club –A look backward may help — The battle of the Covid19 ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ plays out. — leaping to the right conclusions is essential … my post tries to clear the fog. This might help The following is a reprint of a post…
Fed Speakers Weigh In: Good Policy or Grandstanding?
— Seems like everybody wants to get into the act … St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Fed Governor Waller call for stronger measures to fight inflation. — Though we value free speech, should the Fed speak with one voice when it comes to monetary policy? — Are opinions and forecasts based on the “dismal science” of…
Bubbles and Bear Markets: One size does not fit all!
— The Tech and Innovation bubble has burst — Investors heavily involved in this space are definitely in a bear market (a narrow bear market). — Cathie Wood for the defense — Words of wisdom from Morgan Stanley …Caveat Emptor — Parting thoughts The tech and innovation bubble has burst There is no question about it. A proxy…
UST 10-year rockets — a misguided attempt at beating the Fed to the punch
— A flight to safety … the yield on the 10-year treasury drops 15% in two weeks in a raging bull market. — For some investors (computerized or not) fears of higher interest rates and inflation trump a rip-roaring economy with a tankful of fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy as far as the eye can…
Tuesday’s Market Bloodbath: Is Still “Much ado about nothing”
–Tuesday September 28, 2021 showed us a very predictable market reaction to No New News, save greater conviction that inflation may not be that transient and rates will be going up. –Market participants (including their computers) have been conditioned by the media to react in this way over decades and there is no nuance with the…