— The glories of high-frequency trading were on full display last Thursday as the S&P 500 turned a 1% gain into 1.2% loss for the day — It was all about the noise … the potential for a good jobs number being bad news for the prospects of a rate cut. — Last Friday’s rebound may…
Tag: stocks
Nvidia: Friday’s Trade …Not a Good Look
— Nvidia trading on Friday may signal the end of the line for this ‘big tech / AI’ favorite . — Beware the ‘key reversal day’ as it may have implications for the ‘Magnificent Seven’. — Safe Bets — It is time for the ‘also-rans’ to shine! Nvidia, are we at the end of the line?…
Beware the ‘Data Point Market’
— ‘Data Point Market’ defined — Who wins, who loses? — The best way to play The ‘Data Point Market’ defined The key data point last week was the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Thursday February 29. This is supposedly a key inflation indicator for the Fed in its fight against inflation. A number at or…
A Cautionary Tale From The Y2K Tech Bubble And How to Profit From It–History Worth Noting!
— No question we have a bubble here, but it is not the entire market–W/O the ‘Mag 7’ S&P forward multiple is around 15.5. — The 20.4 forward multiple on the entire index appears to be all that many investors and market analysts see. This type of tunnel vision caused many to miss a great move in the broader…
No Rate Cut … No Big Deal!
— Focus on Fed policy and lower rates misses the point … in our strong economy we may not need to do this. — Those calling for more economic support from lower rates never mention continued expansionary fiscal policy (continued deficit spending) as an offset. — Keynes had it right: you stimulate when you have…
The huge 2-month jump in confidence–Why now?
— University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey jumped 29% in the November/December time period … the biggest 2-month increase since 1991. — The average survey respondent is finally becoming aware of trends that have been in place since early 2022. — Why has this epiphany taken so long to prevail and where do we go from here? Good News Turns Out To Be Good…
Be Wary of Not Letting ‘Good News” Be ‘Good News’
— Market’s tepid reaction to Friday’s good employment data frames the bearish narrative. — Beware! Fed rate cuts may not be as imminent as recent strong market action may be signaling. — I ask the question, is it about time we let good news be good news without Fed intervention? Bah! Humbug! Bad News ……
Is the market’s recent strength all about expected rate cuts or is something else at play?
— There is a constant drumbeat about continuing market strength and expected Fed action to cut rates. — This is a typically simplistic media/pundit explanation of a complex and misunderstood market. — What happens if the Fed doesn’t budge? The bull will continue. The Drumbeat This headline from Bloomberg gives a good summation: “After So Many False Dawns, the market is convinced…
Flight-to-safety assets: Are they really safe?
— Gold got a new lease on life in October, up over 12% month-to-date on interest rate driven recession fears and the recent armed action between Israel and Hamas. — Bitcoin has soared since September, up 28%, in part on flight-to-safety buying and in part due to recent speculation about the SEC allowing the sale…
China Contagion, Powell’s Speech and Nvidia — Make or Break Moments For The Market?
— Chinese economic softening gaining prominence as a reason for caution (maybe fear) — “Nvidia Beats Big, and Powell Doesn’t Rock the Boat. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.” — Fear, distrust and skepticism — The key ingredients China Contagion — plus What About Taiwan? Chinese GDP growth in the first half of 2023 was 6.3% (year-over-year). In 2022,…