— What was the market expecting him to say? — Is “Mission Accomplished” the right message at this time? — Is 2% the right target? “Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down”(CNBC) What was the market expecting? Please don’t say: ‘all clear’, ‘everything’s great’,’ inflation is but a dark remnant of our distant…
Tag: U.S. Treasury
Why energy demand should be the last thing you worry about when investing in oil stocks
— Demand concerns no longer make sense as a negative in the energy investment process — The game has changed — In the new world of hydrocarbons it’s all about capital discipline and supply management. — The Exxon (XON) / Pioneer (PXD) deal and Chevron (CHV) / Hess (HES) deals are emblematic of this shift. Demand Concerns According to…
Head Fake: Irrational Fear Still Grips The Market
— Fed week this week and the ritual continues. — Armageddon continues on hold rebuffed by continuing good economic and earnings reports. — A few words about inflation — If you believe the Fed’s rhetoric the 10-year US treasury note near 5% yield is the deal of the decade. I composed this piece on the weekend. Even with…
Flight-to-safety assets: Are they really safe?
— Gold got a new lease on life in October, up over 12% month-to-date on interest rate driven recession fears and the recent armed action between Israel and Hamas. — Bitcoin has soared since September, up 28%, in part on flight-to-safety buying and in part due to recent speculation about the SEC allowing the sale…
Is it “Groundhog Day” … or should we call this movie “Back to the Future?”
— August CPI, due 9/13/23 becomes another focal point / the inflection point du jour. — A look back on US rate structure gives perspective (higher for longer?) — Still very constructive on the market with caveats on sector and valuation For the market every day is Groundhog Day Wouldn’t you like to wake up…
China Contagion, Powell’s Speech and Nvidia — Make or Break Moments For The Market?
— Chinese economic softening gaining prominence as a reason for caution (maybe fear) — “Nvidia Beats Big, and Powell Doesn’t Rock the Boat. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.” — Fear, distrust and skepticism — The key ingredients China Contagion — plus What About Taiwan? Chinese GDP growth in the first half of 2023 was 6.3% (year-over-year). In 2022,…
Debt Ceiling: The Great Distraction
— The debt ceiling, a tempest in a teapot, will be addressed. — The media frenzy surrounding the DC distracts from important progress on other issues. — Accentuating the positives! The Tempest In a Teapot What I’m about to discuss should not be construed as an endorsement of our current national debt position (about $31…
Flights to Safety: Treasuries, Gold, Nasdaq (?) and Bitcoin (?)
— What’s up with this foursome? Treasuries and gold maybe, but Nasdaq and Bitcoin do not compute. — Historically gold is not a glistening investment — We have seen the infatuation with tech before and it has not ended well. — Bad recollections of the demises of the ‘Nifty Fifty’ or the Covid Playbook … SELL ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE, BUY…
“Bank turmoil isn’t over” –Maybe
— The narrative exists that we are not out of the woods yet on our banking problems. — That seemed to be top of mind for investors selling stocks on the heels of today’s 1/4 point bump in the Fed funds rate. — In this skittish environment do nothing with rates — my sentiment exactly…
A crummy week in the market: Impending disaster or opportunity knocking
— Preamble — The Fed finally broke something — Prudence would argue for a less hawkish stance on the part of the Fed — We’ve been this way before … scared/panicky, but not it is the end of the world — So what? Now what?…