— A series of new all-time index highs but no popping of corks — A flight to safety goes on under the surface–a 1.25% yield on the 10-year Treasury July 7, couple with a ‘risk off’ 7% drop in the Russell 2K since July 1 — Are we headed for an economic slow-down or recession? This question…
Tag: U.S. Treasury
Coronavirus Panic: Time to chill, breath in and breath out … and consider the facts.
Time to look backward: an S&P 500/Corona virus retrospective Even though the corona virus outbreak in China had been on investor radar screens since the first of 2020 the S&P 500 managed to claw its way to a new all-time high of 3338 January 23. That happened to be the day China cut off egress…
“Buy, Sell or Fold” — A market history and MLP retrospective
A Glance in the Rear View Mirror In March of 2013, I penned my 14th edition of kortsessions.com, “Buy, sell or Fold?”. We had just broken definitely above the previous record high ( March 2000, s&P 500, 1550). The actual record high did occur in October 2007 (1576) but it was a very short-lived move…
Breaking Radio Silence …
Actually, I’m breaking internet silence. “Radio” just sounds much more dramatic … like risking blowing a top secret mission. What I try to do with kortsessions is to blow someone else’s secret missions … to give facts and perspective. That “someone else” is the media, and their covert mission, as it pertains to market news,…
“The president is the Yankees and Powell is the Toledo Mud Hens.”
Thus spake Jim Cramer … Wednesday morning June 19. Previously in the “Squawk on the Street” segment he opined, “Powell is living in a conventional world,” not the World of Trump. Powell’s conventional world is a place where you try to get the near-impossible (monetary policy) right. It is a world that involves meticulously working…
Pre-emptive Fed Strikes + Having It Both Ways
Dumb and Dumber Just when you thought media/pundit commentary on the market and the economy couldn’t get anymore inane and stupid, they surprise you by plumbing a new depth. This article from CNBC, “These charts show how Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the most important thing to the market now,” is a solid gold example. Of…
Flight to Safety: “All that glitters is not gold!” — William Shakespeare
A Retraction Before getting into the meat of this post covering the last ten years of ‘Flights to Safety’ and gold as a flight-to-safety asset, I need to take back all the nice things I said about Barron’s last week because they went back to the dark side this week (“The Dow Celebrates Five Weeks…
Most Disrespected, Unloved and Disbelieved Secular Bull Market Since the Last One
That was an apt description of the sentiment surrounding the early years of the secular bull market that ran between 1982 and 2000. The bears thought they’d put the last nail in its coffin after the Dow Jones Industrials posted a 170% gain in the five years between 1982 and 1987, only to collapse a…
“The Eerie Calm in Global Markets” (Beware!)
The recent shift in Fed rhetoric … does it really mark a policy shift? Market history update Bad News Sells! Randall Forsyth, Barron’s editorial writer and chief contributor to the “Up and Down Wall Street” column, is a modern day “Mikey.” You all remember Mikey? He was a 3 or 4-year-old toddler featured…
Jeffrey Gundlach — S&P 500 headed to new lows
CNBC felt Gundlach’s commentary to be so valuable, so prescient that they ran this banner headline, “Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 is headed to new lows: ‘I’m pretty sure this is a bear market’”, two days in a row. BTW we are already very close to the S&P’s low of the year. A break to…