–If this market has you confused or fearful, join the club –A look backward may help — The battle of the Covid19 ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ plays out. — leaping to the right conclusions is essential … my post tries to clear the fog. This might help The following is a reprint of a post…
Tag: pundits
Fed Speakers Weigh In: Good Policy or Grandstanding?
— Seems like everybody wants to get into the act … St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Fed Governor Waller call for stronger measures to fight inflation. — Though we value free speech, should the Fed speak with one voice when it comes to monetary policy? — Are opinions and forecasts based on the “dismal science” of…
Inflation and War Talk … Sawing Sawdust Again
— Media fright fest … This week they turned up the volume on old news, sawing sawdust again. — Inflation … Should it really be making us and the market crazy? — War in Eastern Europe … What’s the impact on iPhone demand? Media Fright fest If I were the head of a major media empire last…
Tuesday’s Market Bloodbath: Is Still “Much ado about nothing”
–Tuesday September 28, 2021 showed us a very predictable market reaction to No New News, save greater conviction that inflation may not be that transient and rates will be going up. –Market participants (including their computers) have been conditioned by the media to react in this way over decades and there is no nuance with the…
The Big Lie About The End of Quantitative Easing and Other Media Malpractice
–There is a falsehood constantly perpetuated by the media that the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) will be bad for the market and you should worry about it. –This is hard to imagine given that the emergency which brought us QE has passed, and QE’s ability to keep rates lower may be greatly exaggerated. –Why is it that Chairman…
September … the worst month for stocks … imminent corrections and other things that scare us
–Is September as bad for stocks as the media would have you believe? –Is a significant correction imminent, and does the “September effect” make it more likely? –The bifurcated market … the shoe may be moving to the other foot. September, bad for stocks? The truth will set you free. The freedom I’m referring to here is the…
What’s bugging’ this market? Record highs and no celebrations
— A series of new all-time index highs but no popping of corks — A flight to safety goes on under the surface–a 1.25% yield on the 10-year Treasury July 7, couple with a ‘risk off’ 7% drop in the Russell 2K since July 1 — Are we headed for an economic slow-down or recession? This question…
The Stock Market: Dazed and Confused to The Max
— Two key historic characteristics of the stock market: It works to confuse and confound the maximum number of people most of the time while providing excellent long-term returns. — So-called “hawkish” commentary by the Fed is credited with sending stocks into a tailspin while, strangely enough, buyers showed up for the US Treasury 10-year which’…
The real “Doctor Doom” is back and he’s gloomy
Who is the real “Doctor Doom?” Why, it is none other than Henry Kaufman, former chief economist at Salomon Brothers, after a long repose out of the limelight. Not only is he back, but he is loaded for bear … he ” … Sees Danger in the Markets and Economy.” (you need WSJ or Barron’s…
Interest rates and stocks: Heads you lose … Tails you lose!
The Great Conundrum In January of 2020 the 10-year US Treasury opened the new year trading with a yield of 1.8%. The S&P 500 was on its way to a 4.6% gain and a new record high by February. Then Covid-19 hit and in the flight to safety that followed the 10-year yield went below one half…