— The narrative exists that we are not out of the woods yet on our banking problems. — That seemed to be top of mind for investors selling stocks on the heels of today’s 1/4 point bump in the Fed funds rate. — In this skittish environment do nothing with rates — my sentiment exactly…
Tag: Federal Reserve
A crummy week in the market: Impending disaster or opportunity knocking
— Preamble — The Fed finally broke something — Prudence would argue for a less hawkish stance on the part of the Fed — We’ve been this way before … scared/panicky, but not it is the end of the world — So what? Now what?…
Inflation / Recession Obsession Win’s the Day!
— “Where Is GDP Headed? Don’t Ask an Economist!” — Recent economist’s predictions on PCE inflation + .5%. It came in at +.6% — A 1/10% miss on economist’s forecast creates negative media feeding frenzy. — Feeding the Inflation/Recession Obsession, starving perspective “Where is GDP heading? Don’t ask an economist.” With all due deference to my economist friends,…
Bear Market Rally or Next Leg In Secular Bull?
–The market won’t bottom until we are in the depths of a recession–Wrong! — Recent market action on the upside has brought the ‘boo birds’ out in force. — Good news … bring it! Sentiment continues to stink –– Forget ‘hard landing’ or ‘soft landing’, ‘touch and go’ may be closest description (if we land at all) and, as usual, the…
“Stock Market Worries for the Start of 2023: The Fed, Payrolls, and Mercury in Retrograde(!).”
— My title emanates from a year-end editorial header in a well-regarded financial magazine. — When all else fails to convey the gravity of the moment, invoke in the astrologer. — Warren Buffett commentary on gravity and rates worth considering — Bifurcation in reverse “Second verse same as the first or Wax on Wax off”…
“The Market Is Not Cheap” … or Is It?
— Is the S&P 500 PE expensive? Maybe in a perspective-free environment the answer is ‘yes’. But I am not perspective-free. — In today’s media environment there are legions of market analysts who would say it is overvalued vs. historical the lows in the late ’70s and early ’80s where high rates and inflation pushed…
If bull markets are “born on pessimism,” where are we now?
— Investor sentiment evidence would argue these most recent contractions are for real! — Why investor perceptions differ greatly from reality — lack of perspective and media more interested in getting their attention than an unemotional presentation fo the facts. — Most of the market away from the large cap/tech heavy S&P 500 looks very attractive. — “Bull…
Trying to figure out this market?
–If this market has you confused or fearful, join the club –A look backward may help — The battle of the Covid19 ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ plays out. — leaping to the right conclusions is essential … my post tries to clear the fog. This might help The following is a reprint of a post…
The New Narrative: Buy Stocks of Profitable Companies?
— To expand the theme, “Buy stocks of profitable companies that make ‘things’ and return profit to shareholders.” (Jim Cramer) — In the face of speculation about a 50 basis point move on rates at the May FOMC meeting (followed by another 75 bips in June) the market is telling us we should not buy…
Fed Speakers Weigh In: Good Policy or Grandstanding?
— Seems like everybody wants to get into the act … St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Fed Governor Waller call for stronger measures to fight inflation. — Though we value free speech, should the Fed speak with one voice when it comes to monetary policy? — Are opinions and forecasts based on the “dismal science” of…