— What was the market expecting him to say? — Is “Mission Accomplished” the right message at this time? — Is 2% the right target? “Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down”(CNBC) What was the market expecting? Please don’t say: ‘all clear’, ‘everything’s great’,’ inflation is but a dark remnant of our distant…
Tag: wall Street
Why energy demand should be the last thing you worry about when investing in oil stocks
— Demand concerns no longer make sense as a negative in the energy investment process — The game has changed — In the new world of hydrocarbons it’s all about capital discipline and supply management. — The Exxon (XON) / Pioneer (PXD) deal and Chevron (CHV) / Hess (HES) deals are emblematic of this shift. Demand Concerns According to…
Head Fake: Irrational Fear Still Grips The Market
— Fed week this week and the ritual continues. — Armageddon continues on hold rebuffed by continuing good economic and earnings reports. — A few words about inflation — If you believe the Fed’s rhetoric the 10-year US treasury note near 5% yield is the deal of the decade. I composed this piece on the weekend. Even with…
Flight-to-safety assets: Are they really safe?
— Gold got a new lease on life in October, up over 12% month-to-date on interest rate driven recession fears and the recent armed action between Israel and Hamas. — Bitcoin has soared since September, up 28%, in part on flight-to-safety buying and in part due to recent speculation about the SEC allowing the sale…
China Contagion, Powell’s Speech and Nvidia — Make or Break Moments For The Market?
— Chinese economic softening gaining prominence as a reason for caution (maybe fear) — “Nvidia Beats Big, and Powell Doesn’t Rock the Boat. Why That’s Ominous for Stocks.” — Fear, distrust and skepticism — The key ingredients China Contagion — plus What About Taiwan? Chinese GDP growth in the first half of 2023 was 6.3% (year-over-year). In 2022,…
The Dangers Of Falling Prey To VIX-ation
— VIX-ation defined — “The Stock Market Is Falling. Why It’s Time to Get Happy,” … makes perfect sense — Changing investor mindsets: human nature often leads us in the wrong direction — I am Kort Sessions with over 53 years of investment experience–42 as an investment professional. My aim is to provide real life perspective and context…
For the BOO Birds good news is not news!
— Existential crisis averted (a tentative debt limit agreement) … a new (old) crop of negatives emerge. — Congress may balk as deadline approaches … or what about the employment numbers this week, inflation, the next Fed meeting or, horrors, a recession? — A return to the Covid playbook (without the Covid) — sell Economic sensitivity, buy growth. — The…
Flights to Safety: Treasuries, Gold, Nasdaq (?) and Bitcoin (?)
— What’s up with this foursome? Treasuries and gold maybe, but Nasdaq and Bitcoin do not compute. — Historically gold is not a glistening investment — We have seen the infatuation with tech before and it has not ended well. — Bad recollections of the demises of the ‘Nifty Fifty’ or the Covid Playbook … SELL ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE, BUY…
“Bank turmoil isn’t over” –Maybe
— The narrative exists that we are not out of the woods yet on our banking problems. — That seemed to be top of mind for investors selling stocks on the heels of today’s 1/4 point bump in the Fed funds rate. — In this skittish environment do nothing with rates — my sentiment exactly…
A crummy week in the market: Impending disaster or opportunity knocking
— Preamble — The Fed finally broke something — Prudence would argue for a less hawkish stance on the part of the Fed — We’ve been this way before … scared/panicky, but not it is the end of the world — So what? Now what?…