–Unthinkable events … the market sails right through –Balancing changing politics, insurrection and asset allocation –Potential flies in the ointment—Interest Rates, Taxes and Inflation –The VIX provides a clue on market sentiment and direction Protest, insurrection and the market What is depicted in my opening image is civil disobedience, rightful protest to redress grievances. What…
Tag: Donald j. Trump
A postcard from the bunker
Hunkered Down As I write this post I am hunkered down in the Kort family bunker, deep below the towering McMansions of Leawood, Kansas. Present are my wife, daughter and granddaughter and a fair supply of provisions, including toilet paper. We are some of the lucky ones. My tongue-in-cheek intro does absolutely not mean to…
A significant change in message occurred Friday the 13th.
The word from Washington has changed from the coronavirus is ‘no big deal.’ We can get through this biological tap on the brakes of the economy with monetary ease (50 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate), a suggested cut in payroll taxes and, last Wednesday, a 30-day ban on flights from continental Europe….
Nothing inspires confidence like an emergency Fed funds rate cut
— During the entire panic on the downside you had to ask ‘are things really that bad out there?’ — One also has to ask how does a cut of 50 basis points on the Fed funds rate positively impact the trajectory the COVID19 epidemic. — Fortunately, the answer may be ‘no’ to bullet number…
A Lethal Combo: PMI at a 10-year low + Slowing Job Growth — NOT!
Flash! Dow looses 800 points in 2 Days Here we go again, more selling based on market news items reported without contextual backup. Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for September Worst in a Decade 50.2% was the expected reading. 47.8% was the actual number. Any reading below 50 is considered to be indicative of a slowing…
Impeachment: Precursor and Aftermath
Introduction In this discussion the potential market impact of the run-up to an impeachment proceeding and the impact of an impeachment trial and removal from office of president Trump, I will do my best to keep it apolitical and factual. I will be speculating about possible outcomes and their impact on the market and the economy. I…
Presidential trade pronouncements, a real concern or a tap on the brakes?
— First and foremost, this is not meant to be a political opinion piece. — It is meant to be a discussion of my views on recent market action and what appear to be some interesting patterns (coincidences) that I have observed in tandem with the May, 2019, record high and the July 26, 2019…
Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan–Version 2.0
Late the evening of November 8, 2016 I wrote a post “Ladies and Gentlemen we have a Black Swan.” The Black Swan (unexpected, very rare) was the surprise election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. This was before the final tally of the vote was in. You may read the entire post…
Is the United States a “Stupid Country?”
People on both sides of the political spectrum, including our president, have made that assertion. Since I try not to do politics in kortsessions.com I will refrain from comment, other than to say what I see on the political front is very worrisome and that “stupid” (maybe even dangerous) could easily be used as a…
Dow 22,000!–The Brave New Market
You may have noticed recently a total absence of kortsession posts. The reasons are twofold: one, it is hard to argue after the run we’ve had that a correction or even a cyclical bear market market might not be in the offing (it’s even got me doubting after years of bullish thought process on this…