Election 2016 a major negative surprise for investors? Initially, I thought it would be. Early the morning of the day after I posted, Ladies and gentlemen we have a Black Swan (11/9/2016). I mean based on the polling, which turned out to be dead wrong, there looked to be little chance that we’d ever see…
Tag: stocks
Presidential trade pronouncements, a real concern or a tap on the brakes?
— First and foremost, this is not meant to be a political opinion piece. — It is meant to be a discussion of my views on recent market action and what appear to be some interesting patterns (coincidences) that I have observed in tandem with the May, 2019, record high and the July 26, 2019…
Pre-emptive Fed Strikes + Having It Both Ways
Dumb and Dumber Just when you thought media/pundit commentary on the market and the economy couldn’t get anymore inane and stupid, they surprise you by plumbing a new depth. This article from CNBC, “These charts show how Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the most important thing to the market now,” is a solid gold example. Of…
When There’s No Bad News, Sow Bad News
If the above motto is not emblazoned over the entrance to CNBC world headquarters it should be because that is exactly what they do! Today is a perfect example. There really is not much going on save what should be the wrap up to a fairly routine Fed meeting, a meeting where no significant policy…
Ugly, But True. And, as usual, late to the party
“Wall Street looks to leave behind the half-year bear scare” This is a headline from an article and video a segment from CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” (3/18/19) The video is a three-way discussion with moderator Mike Santoli, Michael Bapis (Fios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital Management) and Craig Johnson (Piper Jaffray). $64 question … Where do we…
“The Eerie Calm in Global Markets” (Beware!)
The recent shift in Fed rhetoric … does it really mark a policy shift? Market history update Bad News Sells! Randall Forsyth, Barron’s editorial writer and chief contributor to the “Up and Down Wall Street” column, is a modern day “Mikey.” You all remember Mikey? He was a 3 or 4-year-old toddler featured…
The “Christmas Eve Massacre” and where we stand now
First and Foremost … By early October, 2018, the S&P 500 had more than quadrupled off its 666, 2009 secular bear market low (up over 300%). This was capped off by a spectacular 24 month run that saw the S&P 500 increase more than 50% to a new all-time-high of 2951.81 (10/3/18). I would say a correction of…
A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
Irrational Pessimism Before moving on to a more complete discussion of ‘the belly of the bear’, I thought a real-time view of ‘irrational pessimism’ might be in order. I have one and it is a doozy. Now a ‘doozy’, loosely defined, is “something unique.” Unfortunately, or fortunately for those left with money to buy, there…
Jeffrey Gundlach — S&P 500 headed to new lows
CNBC felt Gundlach’s commentary to be so valuable, so prescient that they ran this banner headline, “Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 is headed to new lows: ‘I’m pretty sure this is a bear market’”, two days in a row. BTW we are already very close to the S&P’s low of the year. A break to…
A ‘Bad Trip’ Down Memory Lane
The ‘bad trip’ I’m alluding to in my title was the type some substance experimenters used to get from self-administered hallucinogenic drugs like LSD (Lysergic Acid Diethylamide). This was the preferred trip-inducing substance of Harvard psychology professor Dr. Timothy Leary who thought it might have great potential in psychotherapy. “He used LSD himself and developed…